Tag Archives: newsletter

Brexit Predict This Great Graphic shows the price people are willing to pay to bet that the UK votes to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum on the PredictIt events markets.   We included the lower chart to give some sense of volume of activity on this wager in this event market. Brexit predict – click to enlarge. Presently, one would have to wager 42 cents to win a dollar if the UK votes to leave.  On May 23,...

In March, the ECB decided to increase its asset purchases from 60 to 80 bln euros a month and to include corporate bonds.  The corporate bond buying program begins this week.   We use an FAQ format to discuss the key issues. What is the ECB doing?   The ECB will buy euro-denominated, investment grade bonds from companies incorporated within the eurozone. What is the duration of the corporate bonds that the ECB will...

Sorry, I've looked everywhere but I can't find the page you're looking for. If you follow the link from another website, I may have removed or renamed the page some time ago. You may want to try searching for the page: Searching for the terms %3Futm+source%3Dfeedburner%26utm+medium%3Dfeed%26utm+campaign%3DFeed%3A+SnbChf+%28SNB+%26+CHF%3A+The+Swiss+National+Bank+and+Swiss+Franc+Blog%29%26utm+content%3DGoogle+UK...

With the dismal jobs reports,  speculators had to buy euro to cover their shorts (mostly against USD, but also against CHF). This led to a rising EUR/CHF on Friday. Today fundamental rules were valid again: In times of slow growth, the Swiss franc appreciates. Hence EUR/CHF was down by 49 bips. After the shellacking it took after the shockingly poor jobs data, the US dollar has only managed a shallow recovery...

EM ended the week on a firm note after the US jobs shocker.  While we view the weak reading as a fluke, shifting market perceptions of Fed tightening risk should keep EM bid near-term.  However, we think the July FOMC meeting is still very much alive.  That and the upcoming Brexit vote are potential pitfalls for EM in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, oil prices shrugged off disappointment with OPEC inaction last week, with WTI oil remaining near $50 to close out the week.  The central banks...

Opponents of the Swiss Basic Income Initiative demonstrate in front of parliament This weekend the Swiss population was called upon to make a historic decision, when Switzerland became the first country worldwide to put the idea of free money for everyone, technically known as Unconditional Basic Income (of CHF2,500 per month for every adult man and woman, and CHF625 for every child, for doing absolutely nothing) to a vote. As reported previously, the outcome of this referendum would set...

Through the first part of the year, the swinging pendulum of expectations for the trajectory of Fed policy has been a major driver in the foreign exchange market.  This is true even though the ECB and BOJ continue to ease monetary policy aggressively.   The Australian and New Zealand dollars appear to influenced more by the shifting view of Fed policy than the expectations in some quarter that the RBA and RBNZ could cut interest rates as early as this week.   Indeed, anticipation of Fed...

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog, We are watching an entire nation collapse right in front of our eyes.  As you read this article, there are severe shortages of just about anything you can imagine in Venezuela.  That includes food, toilet paper, medicine, electricity and even Coca-Cola.  All over the country, people are standing in extremely long lines for hours on end just hoping that they will be able to purchase some provisions for their hungry...

EUR/CHF The massive surprise in the US job report was reflected in currency rates. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. This reflects the fact that the ECB is currently considered the most dovish central bank.Consequently the biggest short speculative position is in the euro, while traders are long CHF against USD. Click to expand USD/CHF After a relatively steady week, the dollar lost 130 bips on Friday. Click to expand Continued by Marc Chandler:...

The Swiss Franc net position was reduced from 4.0 contracts long to 0.1 thousand contracts long. Apart from the yen., other speculative position barely changed. We are keen on next week’s data that should reflect the dismal US jobs report. Even recognizing a holiday-short week, speculative position adjustments were minor in the days before the ECB meeting and the US jobs report.   There were no gross position adjustments that met the 10k contract threshold. The largest gross...