Tag Archives: newsletter

  A Fragile System Claudio Grass, Global Gold: Ronald, it is a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak with you. We’ve known each other for a very long time, both on a personal and professional level. Because of our central banks, we find our economies today operating on artificial stimulus and negative interest rates. How would you summarize the consequences of this policy? Mr. Stoeferle: I have always considered...

[clear] [follow_author user=dorgang position=right text="Introduction by"] Summary: Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy. Added that the downside risks to the economy have diminished. Only George dissents.   The Federal Reserve met market expectations fully.  It upgraded its assessment of the economy, recognized...

Swiss Franc The Euro kept on climbing, after yesterday’s rapid rise. Click to enlarge. The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements.  The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator Japan As uncertainty over Japan’s fiscal stimulus roiled the yen and domestic...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements.  The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. In June, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.24 to 1.34 points. This was mainly due to a better performance in the tourism industry as well as a slight improvement in sentiment in the retail trade....

Summary: The decline in oil prices is a factor weighing on the Canadian dollar. US premium over Canada is rising, and may continue as the economies diverge. The general risk appetite is supportive for the Canadian dollar. Our informal and simple model for the Canadian dollar has three variables.  Oil, interest rates, and general risk environment.  Over time, the coefficient of the variables can and do change....

  Champion of the Downtrodden? “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H.L. Mencken A mass e-mail has been making the rounds lately, and it is quite possible that many of our readers have already seen this. For those who haven’t, we wanted to share this moment of hilarity provided to us by Deep State candidate Hillary Clinton. It revolves around...

Once Upon a Time… Prior to 1933, the name “dollar” was used to refer to a unit of gold that had a weight of 23.22 grains. Since there are 480 grains in one ounce, this means that the name dollar also stood for 0.048 ounce of gold. This in turn, means that one ounce of gold referred to $20.67. Now, $20.67 is not the price of one ounce of gold in terms of dollars as popular thinking has it, for there is no such entity...

Summary: The US recovery may have surpassed the 2001 recovery in Q2. Though disappointing, the recovery has been faster than average from a balance sheet crisis. Although slow, it is hard to see the secular stagnation in the data. This Great Graphic was tweeted Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in...

  Apples to Oranges Either we’re doing something wrong or we’ve got the most criminal population on the planet. – Senator and 2016 presidential candidate Jim Webb PARIS – The stock market seemed chilled last week, like a corpse waiting for an autopsy.  Monday morning, gold was falling in Europe… as investors anticipate a higher dollar. But we’ll return to the markets, the dollar and the absurdities wrought by our...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc strangely depreciated on a day, when the other safe-haven, the yen strongly improved. The euro went up to 1.0899 by 0.54%. The reason seems to be technical. USD/CHF Finally over 200DMA? After USD/CHF broke the 200 days moving average (0.9854), and a descending channel since November 2015. This break could lead to a new pattern building. If the SNB has sustained the rise with some...