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Summary The Reserve Bank of India started an easing cycle by cutting all policy rates 25 bp. Bank Indonesia has tilted more dovish after signaling earlier this year that the easing cycle was over. Czech National Bank became the first in Europe to hike. Political risk is rising in Israel. President Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill. Nigeria is trying to unify its system of multiple exchange rates. Brazil President...

If our faith in the future and our resilience is near-zero, then we can’t take any chances. You’ve probably noticed how risk-averse Hollywood has become: the big summer movies are all extensions of existing franchises–mixing up the superheroes in new combinations, or remaking hit films from the past–all safe bets. The trend to “playing it safe” is not limited to Hollywood:–we see risk aversion in every sphere of the...

The US created 209k jobs in July and jobs growth in June was revised higher (+9k) to 231k. The underemployment rate was unchanged at 8.6%. United States Nonfarm payrolls The 287k nonfarm payroll growth in June (265k private sector) will ease fears that the US is headed for a recession.  That type of jobs growth, and the stronger than expected, service sector ISM earlier this week, are not consistent with a...

Wie der erste Teil darzulegen versuchte, muss einer Ausweitung der Geldmenge durch Geschäftsbanken zwangsläufig eine Vermehrung der Basisgeldmenge vorausgegangen sein. Ohne eine Entscheidung der Zentralbank, den Geschäftsbanken –vorgängig oder nachträglich – Basisgeld zur Verfügung zu stellen, ist eine jede Geschäftsbank aufgrund der gegenseitigen Konkurrenz untereinander in deren Möglichkeit, Geld zu schöpfen,...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.1475 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are some chunky option strikes that could come into play today. There are 920 mln euros struck at $1.1850 that expire today. There are A$523 mln struck at $0.7950 expiring today. There are $680 mln struck at CAD1.2550 that will be...

Introduction Being a small open economy Switzerland is highly exposed to the girations of the world economy, both through international trade and financial flows. The country’s trade surplus for instance accounted for nearly half the GDP growth between 2000 and 2007.2 While the growth contribution from trade has slowed during the global crisis, the linkages with the world economy remain important for Switzerland. This...

I suspect President Trump has been told that markets don’t like radical changes. If there is one thing that any elected official is afraid of, it’s the internet flooded with reports of grave financial instability. We need only go back a year to find otherwise confident authorities suddenly reassessing their whole outlook. On the campaign trail, candidate Trump was very harsh on Janet Yellen. Now six months into his...

– Shrinkflation has hit 2,500 products in five years– Not just chocolate bars that are shrinking– Toilet rolls, coffee, fruit juice and many other goods– Effects of shrinkflation been seen for “good number of years” – Consumer Association of Ireland– Shrinkflation is stealth inflation, form of financial fraud– Punishes vulnerable working and middle classes– Gold is hedge against inflation and shrinkflation Editor: Mark...

In a CEPR discussion paper, Cedric Tille argues that Switzerland’s international linkages have been transformed over the last decade. Abstract: - Click to enlarge Over the last decade, the economic linkages between Switzerland and the rest of the world have been transformed. First, merchanting and the chemical industry account for an increasing share of international trade, with chemicals exports expanding...

Former Fed Chairman warns of bond bubble, stagflation “Moving into a … stagflation not seen since the 1970s” This will not be “good for asset prices” 10 Yr Gov bond yields fell from 15.8% in 1981 to 2.3% Interest rates will not stay low, will rise ‘reasonably fast’ “Normal” interest rates in 4%-5% range Inflation will not stay at historically low levels Gold “protects savings” and is “store of value” Gold is the...