Tag Archives: newsletter

In August 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 3.9 points. It thus more than reversed its previous month’s climb. With a new reading of 104.1, however, it still points to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at above average rates. In August 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell from 108.0 in July (revised up from 106.8) by...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. Private consumption vs. UBS Consumption Indicator UBS consumption indicator printed 1.38 in June, pointing to subdued growth in Swiss private consumption in recent months. Relatively weak growth in...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango.  Fundamental Developments The price of gold dropped two bucks, and silver two cents. However, it was a pretty wild ride around the time when some information came out from our monetary masters at their annual boondoggle at Jackson Hole. We will show some charts of Friday’s intraday action, below. The overseers of the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.1415 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s pre-weekend losses were extended initially in Asia before it recovered sufficiently to give European participant a better selling level. The dollar selling into the shallow bounce reflects the bearish sentiment, which as we...

Neuchâtel, 28.08.2017 (FSO) – In the 2nd quarter 2017, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.4% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.1% with previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 0.2%. The Swiss economy counted 5700 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+10.5%) and the employment outlook indicator is also indicating an...

« La vie humaine est devenue plus sacrifiable » : pourquoi l’esclavage n’a-t-il jamais rapporté autant d’argent. Une nouvelle étude montre que l’esclavage moderne est plus lucratif que jamais, les trafiquants du sexe engrangeant des bénéfices records. Aujourd’hui, les marchands d’esclaves enregistrent un retour sur investissement 25 à 30 fois plus important que leurs semblables aux 18e et 19e siècles. Siddharth Kara, un...

Stock Markets EM FX ended last week on a strong note, buoyed by perceived dovishness from Yellen at the Jackson Hole symposium. However, US jobs data this Friday could test the market’s convictions. Within EM, data are likely to support our view that EM central banks can retain their largely dovish posture into 2018. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, August 23 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Mexico...

Summary: EMU preliminary August CPI headline rise may not translate into core. US jobs growth is fine; earnings growth is key. Trump’s coalition is fraying, and the weekend pardon will not help mend fences. The US dollar’s consolidation ended with an exclamation point last week.  The downtrend since the beginning of the year is resuming, and there is a reasonable risk that the pace accelerates. In addition to...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary Home ownership varies throughout the EU but is overall near US levels. Germany has the lowest home ownership, and Spain has the most.  Italy has the least amount of mortgages. US include owner equivalent rents in CPI, the EU does not. This Great Graphic was in the Financial Times recently. It shows home ownership rates several EU countries.  The useful chart also shows those who own (red bar) and those...