Tag Archives: Macroview

Iran has begun increased its stockpiles of uranium and increased its uranium enhancement in response to the pressure being applied by the US since the latter withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. What are the chances for further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and what do these tensions mean for investors?Iran has sought to goad Europe, Russia and China into providing relief from sanctions introduced since the Americans withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action last...

The Fed will likely cut rates by 25 basis points on 31 July, with a similar cut possible as early as September.During his testimony before the House of Representatives on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell repeated the dovish signals he gave at the Fed press conference in June, hinting at a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 31 July.Powell’s priority is to preserve the economic expansion, now 10 years old: the coming monetary easing is about...

The latest Asian PMIs point to continued deceleration of growth momentum in the region, but domestic-driven economies are more resilient than export-dependent ones.The average of manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs) for Asia (excluding Japan) came in at 49.6 in June, down from 49.9 in May. This was the second consecutive month in which this measure fell below the 50 threshold and indicates that manufacturing activity in Asia is contracting.China is the largest contributor to the...

The extradition bill is ‘dead’ but political turmoil is not over yet. Since early June, a series of large-scale demonstrations took place in Hong Kong in protest of proposed legislation that would allow extradition of criminal suspects to certain jurisdictions, including mainland China. The proposed bill was triggered by the case of a Hong Kong man who allegedly murdered his girlfriend in Taiwan but could not be sent...

Prospects of more ECB easing has contributed to an across-the-board rally in euro sovereign bonds yields and could help limit volatility in peripheral bonds.Since Mario Draghi in June signalled the European Central Bank’s (ECB) readiness to embark on more easing should the euro area economy fail to regain speed, euro sovereign bonds yields have fallen across the board, with the 10-year Bund yield briefly moving below -0.4% (the same level as the deposit rate) in intraday trading on July 4.We...

Prospects of more ECB easing has contributed to an across-the-board rally in euro sovereign bonds yields and could help limit volatility in peripheral bonds. Since Mario Draghi in June signalled the European Central Bank’s (ECB) readiness to embark on more easing should the euro area economy fail to regain speed, euro sovereign bonds yields have fallen across the board, with the 10-year Bund yield briefly moving below...

In June, the world PMI manufacturing index recorded its second consecutive month below 50, suggesting that global manufacturing is contracting. Global manufacturing sentiment deteriorated further in June. Markit Economics’ World purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing fell to 49.4 from 49.8 in May, the second month in a row it was below the 50 threshold, suggesting that global manufacturing activity is contracting....

In June, the world PMI manufacturing index recorded its second consecutive month below 50, suggesting that global manufacturing is contracting.Global manufacturing sentiment deteriorated further in June. Markit Economics’ World purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing fell to 49.4 from 49.8 in May, the second month in a row it was below the 50 threshold, suggesting that global manufacturing activity is contracting. One needs to go back to 2012 to see something comparable. Even if the...

The CIO Office's view of the week ahead.Christine Lagarde stole headlines this week with her unexpected nomination to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB. Both equities and bond markets rallied sharply around the world on the news. Given Ms. Lagarde’s past history of support for the ECB’s easy monetary policy, her appointment was taken as confirmation that the ECB will continue on its renewed dovish course after its new president takes the helm. In our view, Lagarde’s political background could...

Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.Asset allocationAlthough the US-China ‘trade truce’ and dovish central banks are giving a short-term fillip to equities, our analysis suggests that expansion of valuations from here is limited, making us globally cautious on equities. But we see opportunities in high-quality stocks in individual sectorsWe remain underweight government bonds given low yields, except US Treasuries, on which we are neutral....