The week ahead is eventful. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings. This would make for a busy week by themselves, but there is more. Trade tensions are likely to escalate further, if the US, as scheduled provides a list of $50 bln of Chinese goods that will face another 25% tariff for intellectual property violations. If the US does so, China has threatened to retract...
Read More »Greenback Corrects Lower
The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week’s meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly. However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language. Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as “live.” For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since...
Read More »More Color on Japanese Capital Flows and the Euro
The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15. That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February. The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to carry large euro exposure. Too many observers mistakenly focus on the net...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data
The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days. Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro. The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swinging back in favor of two more Fed rate hikes this year did not trigger new...
Read More »FX Daily, June 01: Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.30% to 1.1558 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The week is ending quite a bit different than it began. The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+...
Read More »FX Daily, May 31: Don’t Confuse Calmer Markets with Resolution
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by -0.42% to 1.1485 CHF. EUR-CHF and USD-CHF, May 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today’s activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. ...
Read More »FX Daily, May 30: Italian Reprieve, Euro Bounces, Trade Tensions Rise
Swiss Franc The Euro rise by 0.38% to 1.1479 CHF. This is the fifth day in sequence that the Swiss Franc appreciated. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates After what could be described as a 15-sigma event yesterday in the Italian bond market, a reprieve today has seen the euro recover a cent from yesterday’s lows. While the...
Read More »FX Daily, May 25: US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of the Weekend
Swiss Franc The Euro is down by 0.63% to 1.1545 CHF. This is the fifth day in sequence that the Swiss Franc appreciated. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Italian stocks are flat, while most European bourses are higher, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up 0.5% in late morning turnover in Europe. The benchmark is lead by real estate,...
Read More »FX Daily, May 23: Greenback Pushes Lower
Swiss Franc The Euro is down by 0.34% to 1.1601 CHF. This is the fifth day in sequence that the Swiss Franc appreciated. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is pulling back after recording new highs for the year against the euro and sterling. The greenback is lower against nearly all the major currencies, but the...
Read More »FX Daily, May 24: Greenback Pushes Lower
Swiss Franc The Euro is down by 0.34% to 1.1601 CHF. This is the fifth day in sequence that the Swiss Franc appreciated. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is pulling back after recording new highs for the year against the euro and sterling. The greenback is lower against nearly all the major currencies, but the...
Read More »