Monetary Metals is growing, and we’re looking for our next key hire: Associate Account Manager. We’re giving an ounce of gold to whoever refers the successful candidate. If you know the perfect candidate for this role, please follow these instructions: Email [email protected] with “I have a Golden Candidate” in the subject line In the body of the email include: Your name, email address, and phone number Applicant’s name, email address,...
Read More »US Jobs, EMU CPI, Japan’s Tankan, and China’s PMI Highlight the Week Ahead
This year was supposed to be about the easing of the pandemic and the normalization of policy. Instead, Russia's invasion of Ukraine threw a wrench in the macroeconomic forecasts as St. Peter’s victories broke the brackets of the NCAA basketball championship pools. The war has pushed up the price of energy, metals, and foodstuffs, which seemed to be advancing prior to the conflict. High-frequency economic data are important because of the insight generated about...
Read More »For The Fed, None Of These Details Will Matter
Most people have the impression that these various payroll and employment reports just go into the raw data and count up the number of payrolls and how many Americans are employed. Perhaps the BLS taps the IRS database as fellow feds, or ADP as a private company in the same data business of employment just tallies how many payrolls it processes as the largest provider of back-office labor services. That’s just not how it works, though. In fact, sampling and...
Read More »Capital and Commodity Markets Strain
Overview: The capital and commodity markets are becoming less orderly. The scramble for dollars is pressuring the cross-currency basis swaps. Volatility is racing higher in bond and stock markets. The industrial metals and other supplies, and foodstuffs that Russia and Ukraine are important providers have skyrocketed. Large Asia Pacific equity markets, including Japan, Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan fell by 1%-2%, while South Korea, Australia, and India managed...
Read More »Jobs (US) and Inflation (EMU) Highlight the Week Ahead
The new covid variant and quick imposition of travel restrictions on several countries in southern Africa have injected a new dynamic into the mix. It may take the better part of the next couple of weeks for scientists to get a handle on what the new mutation means and the efficacy of the current vaccination and pill regime.The initial net impact has been to reduce risk, as seen in the sharp sell-off of stocks. Emerging market currencies extended their losses. ...
Read More »FX Daily, November 9: Falling Yields Give the Yen a Boost
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0587 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Reports that the Fed’s Brainard was interviewed for the Chair helped soften yields a bit, not that they needed extra pressure, on ideas she is more dovish than Powell. In turn, the lower yields saw the yen rise to its best level in nearly a month and led the major currencies higher...
Read More »FX Daily, July 15: Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling. The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction. The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower. Fed Chair Powell did not break new...
Read More »FX Daily, July 02: US Jobs and OPEC+ Day
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% to 1.0946 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US jobs report and OPEC+ decision are awaited. The dollar remains bid. Only the yen and Canadian dollar are showing a hint of resilience, though, on the week, the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies are off between around 1-2%. The greenback is also firmer against the emerging...
Read More »FX Daily, June 04: US and Canada Report on Jobs as G7 Fin Mins Talk Taxes
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.12% to 1.094 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Stronger than expected US employment data, ahead of today’s monthly report and compromise proposal on corporate tax by the White House to help secure a deal on infrastructure sent US bond yields and the dollar high. Late dollar shorts were forced to cover. The greenback is mixed now,...
Read More »FX Daily, June 03: Don’t Believe Sino-American Thaw or Fed’s Corporate Bond Divestment is a Policy Signal
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.06% to 1.0966 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Market participants appear to be biding their time ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report as they digest recent developments. The dollar is firmer, equities are mixed, and benchmark bond yields are a little firmer. China and Hong Kong shares continue their recent underperformance, while...
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