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Tag Archives: GDP

Kuroda-San in the Mouth of Madness

  Deluded Central Planners BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda Photo credit: Toru Hanai / Reuters Zerohedge recently reported on an interview given by Lithuanian ECB council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, which demonstrates how utterly deluded the central planners in the so-called “capitalist” economies of the West have become. His statements are nothing short of bizarre (“we are magic guys!”) – although he is of course correct when he states that a central bank can never “run out of ammunition”....

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Retirement Torpedoes and Democracy

Trump Is Right PARIS – On Wednesday, brick-and-mortar retailers – such as Macy’s – led U.S. stocks lower. The Dow lost about as much as it had gained the day before. Nothing much to talk about there… Macy’s Inc. NYSE + BATS Macy’s on the way to Zool. Macy’s Inc. NYSE + BATS – click to enlarge. When we left off yesterday, we posed two questions: Shouldn’t your editor (under torture, of course) confess his sins, renounce his apostasy, and register to vote before it is too late? And…...

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United States: both ISM indices rose in March

Both the ISM Manufacturing index and its Non-Manufacturing counterpart rose m-o-m in March. However, other economic data recently published were rather weak. Our forecast that GDP will grow by 2.0% in Q1 is revised down to 1.5%. However, our forecast for yearly average growth in 2016 remains unchanged at 2.0%. The ISM Manufacturing survey for March 2016 was published on Friday last week. The headline reading bounced back further from 49.5 in February to an eight-month high of 51.8 in...

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Euro area business surveys regain some momentum in March

Hard activity data for the euro area have improved since January, but downside risks still dominate despite the ECB’s support. At the very least, monetary policy looks set to remain exceptionally accommodative for an extended period of time. Euro area business surveys (PMIs and IFO) showed renewed signs of life in March after the drops seen in the first two months of the year. Surveys also highlighted the contrasting trend between the manufacturing sector, dented by a subdued external...

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Switzerland: Fourth quarter GDP surprises on the upside

According to SECO’s estimate, Swiss real GDP expanded by 0.4% q-o-q (1.7% q-o-q annualised, 0.3% y-o-y) in Q4, much better than consensus expectations (0.1%). Swiss GDP surprised on the upside in Q4, driven by robust consumption. Looking ahead, our scenario for the Swiss economy remains unchanged. For 2016, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.1% and headline inflation to average -0.6%. The 0.4% q-o-q rise in the Q4 figure came after a downwardly revised Q3 figure of -0.1%  q-o-q. For 2015...

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United States: we remain optimistic on consumption growth in 2016

Today’s retail sales report was reassuring. We remain sanguine on consumption growth in 2016. Unsurprisingly, Fed Chair Yellen acknowledged the downside risks to the growth outlook but did not rule out a hike in March. Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.2% m-o-m in January, slightly above consensus expectations (+0.1%). Moreover, December’s number was revised up from -0.1% to +0.2%. Total sales were dented by a 3.1% m-o-m fall in nominal sales at gasoline stations (on the back of lower...

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United States: soft growth in Q4, but a serious downturn remains unlikely

The economy ended last year with soft momentum, and the sharp tightening in US financial and monetary conditions will undoubtedly weigh on US economic growth over the coming months. However, we remain upbeat about consumption and the housing sector. US real GDP, curbed by lower stockbuilding and a slowdown in consumption growth, grew by a soft 0.7% in Q4. We have cut our forecast for 2016. However, we still expect reasonably healthy growth (2.0%). In Q4 2015, US real GDP grew by a weak...

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Growth accelerated markedly in France and Spain in 2015

Private consumption drives 2015 French and Spanish GDP growth and the trend is likely to continue in 2016. Spain and France are the first countries among the euro area’s largest economies to publish GDP figures. According to preliminary estimates, Spanish and French real GDP expanded by 0.8% and 0.2% q-o-q respectively in Q4, both in line with consensus expectations. Over the year, GDP rose by 3.2% and 1.1% respectively in Spain and in France. The relatively good performance of both...

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US Consumers Are on a Shopping Spree

Real GDP growth in the U.S. wasn’t particularly impressive in the third quarter –the 1.5 percent annualized increase came in just shy of the 1.6 percent consensus forecast and way down from the 3.9 percent reading in the second quarter. A look at the components of GDP growth, however, reveals a very positive signal for the future: Consumer spending has been the biggest contributor to GDP in recent quarters, and American consumers are spending enough to make up for stagnating exports and...

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