Tag Archives: FX Trends

Summary: US developments have driven the dollar rally and bond market decline over the past three weeks. Attention shifts to European politics and the ECB meeting. Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet but are unlikely to change policy. United States There were significant moves in interest rates and currencies last month. The drama was primarily spurred by the solidification of expectations...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index continued around its 4% loss since the U.S. elections, while the US Dollar index had a 4% increase. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 02(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ). Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket) On a three years interval, the Swiss...

In the CFTC reporting week ending November 28, speculators added 12.1k contracts to their gross short position, lifting it to 72.4k contracts. Speculators added a little less than one thousand contracts to the gross longs, which then stood at 72.1k contracts. Since peaking in early October near 102k contracts, 30k gross long contracts have been liquidated.  Over the same period, almost 40k contracts have been added...

Summary: USD had a large rally in November. We had been looking for a short and shallow pullback. Here are thoughts about what would signal an outright correction.   The Federal Reserve’s real broad trade weighted dollar index rose 2.3% in November.  This is the largest monthly advance since September 2011.   This is the measure that officials and economists use to try to assess how the currency movement impact...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve The capital markets are finishing the week amid speculation that the driving forces of the past three weeks are ebbing.  Global equities and the dollar may be snapping three-week advances.  The issue is whether it is a consolidation or trend change.   The former is a more prudent assumption until...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve The capital markets are finishing the week amid speculation that the driving forces of the past three weeks are ebbing.  Global equities and the dollar may be snapping three-week advances.  The issue is whether it is a consolidation or trend change.   The former is a more prudent assumption until...

United States The US dollar has slipped lower in response to the jobs data, but quickly recovered. The details are mixed, but is unlikely to change views on the outlook for Fed policy. The headline job creation was in line with expectations at 178k. Job growth of the back two months were shaved by 2k, concentrated in October. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, November 2016(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source:...

United States The US dollar has slipped lower in response to the jobs data, but quickly recovered. The details are mixed, but is unlikely to change views on the outlook for Fed policy. The headline job creation was in line with expectations at 178k. Job growth of the back two months were shaved by 2k, concentrated in October. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, November 2016(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source:...

Marc Chandler - Click to enlarge I was on Bloomberg Television with Joe Wisenthal this afternoon. I explain what I have been suggesting for the past couple of weeks, namely that the Austrian presidential election this weekend is the third point in the populist-nationalist wave, not Italy. The changes in the Senate are opposed by a broad array of forces in Italy, including many very pro-European elements, like former...

Marc Chandler - Click to enlarge I was on Bloomberg Television with Joe Wisenthal this afternoon. I explain what I have been suggesting for the past couple of weeks, namely that the Austrian presidential election this weekend is the third point in the populist-nationalist wave, not Italy. The changes in the Senate are opposed by a broad array of forces in Italy, including many very pro-European elements, like former...