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Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

FX Daily, May 27: China and Hong Kong Pressures are Having Limited Knock-on Effects

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.63% to 1.0667 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday, above the recent ceiling and above the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March. The momentum faltered, and it finished below the opening level and near session lows. The spill-over into today’s activity has been minor. The...

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So Much Dollar Bull

According to the Federal Reserve’s calculations, the US dollar in Q1 pulled off its best quarter in more than twenty years – though it really didn’t need the full quarter to do it. The last time the Fed’s trade-weighed dollar index managed to appreciate farther than the 7.1% it had in the first three months of 2020, the year was 1997 during its final quarter when almost the whole of Asia was just about to get clobbered. In second place (now third) for the dollar’s...

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FX Daily, May 22: US-China Escalation Sinks Hong Kong and Hits Risk Appetites

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.42% to 1.0579 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US has ratcheted up pressure on China on several fronts and has sapped risk appetites ahead of the weekend.  Equity markets are lower across the world.  Even in India, where the central bank unexpectedly cut the repo rate 40 bp, shares fell 0.7%. It was Hong Kong’s 5.5% that led the...

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FX Daily, May 21: Markets Pull Back after Flirting with Breakouts

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.40% to 1.0634 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: New two and a half month highs in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to have much sway in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today as US-China tensions escalate and profit-taking set in. Perhaps it is a bit of “buy the rumor sell the fact” type of activity on the back of upticks in the...

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FX Daily, May 20: Fed Funds Futures No Longer Imply Negative Rates

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.0592 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Another late sell-off of US equities, ostensibly on questions over Moderna’s progress on a vaccine, failed to deter equity gains in the Asia Pacific region. China was a notable exception, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive session. European shares are little...

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FX Daily, May 14: Risk Appetites Wane

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.0504 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Risk appetites have been gradually waning this week. US equity losses mounted yesterday after Tuesday’s late sell-off. Asia Pacific equities were off, with many seeing at least 1.5% drops. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off a little more to double this week’s decline and leaves it in a...

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FX Daily, May 13: Will Powell have any more Luck Pushing against Negative Rate Expectations in the US?

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0521 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Another late sell-off in US shares, this one perhaps related to the sobering assessment by the leading medical adviser for the Trump Administration about the risks of opening too early, failed to deter investors in the Asia Pacific region. Although Japanese shares slipped, most other...

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Everyone Knows The Gov’t Wants A ‘Controlled’ Weimar

There are two parts behind the inflation mongering. The first, noted yesterday, is the Fed’s balance sheet, particularly its supposedly monetary remainder called bank reserves. The central bank is busy doing something, a whole bunch of something, therefore how can it possibly turn out to be anything other than inflationary? The answer: the Federal Reserve is not a central bank, not really. What it “prints” are, as Emil Kalinowski likes to call them, the equivalent...

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We All Know Who’s On First, But What’s On Second?

It wasn’t entirely unexpected, though when it was announced it was still quite a lot to take in. On September 1, 2005, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the nation’s personal savings rate had turned negative during the month of July. The press release announcing the number, in trying to explain the result was reduced instead to a tautology, “The negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.” Why had it...

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FX Daily, April 30: ECB Takes Center Stage

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.38% to 1.0545 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities continue to recover even as deep economic contractions are reported. Yesterday, the US said Q1 GDP contracted at an annualized pace of 4.8%, while the eurozone reported today that output fell 3.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q1. Hong Kong and South Korea were closed, but the rest...

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