In November, money supply growth rate was essentially unchanged from October and remains near September’s all-time high. The stabilization we find in money-supply growth in recent months comes after eight months of record-breaking growth in the US which came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages. Historically, the growth rate has never been higher than what we’ve seen this year, with the 1970s...
Read More »Switzerland among best placed to recover from Covid crisis
Switzerland ranks well on flexible working and good digital connections that allow people to work from home. Keystone / Jean-christophe Bott Switzerland is among the countries best equipped to withstand the effects of the global pandemic, although no nation has emerged unscathed, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). The Alpine country does well on several of the indicators used in a WEF report released Wednesday in Geneva. Replacing its usual annual Global...
Read More »FX Daily, December 16: Greenback Slides Ahead of FOMC as Optimism Underpins Risk Appetites
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.26% to 1.0789 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a four-day downdraft helped by optimism over the progress toward fiscal stimulus and some hope that a new trade deal can still be negotiated between the UK and EU. Europe reported better than expected PMIs. Equities are broadly higher, as are interest rates,...
Read More »“Dirk Niepelt im swissinfo.ch-Gespräch (Interview with Dirk Niepelt),” swissinfo, 2020
Dirk Niepelt ist der Direktor des Studienzentrums Gerzensee und Professor für Makroökonomie an der Universität Bern. Hier im Gespräch mit Geldcast-Host Fabio Canetg. swissinfo.ch Swissinfo, December 14, 2020. HTML, podcast. We talk about CBDC, the Swiss National Bank, whether CBDC would render it easier to implement helicopter drops, and how central bank profits should be distributed. Dirk Niepelt ist weltweit einer der führenden Forscher auf dem Gebiet der...
Read More »This Global Growth Stuff, China Still Wants A Word
Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality. Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and 2019. If currency wars are the...
Read More »Covid, December 16: declaring extraordinary situation pointless right now, says Swiss minister
Speaking to broadcaster RTS, Swiss health minister Alain Berset said the pandemic was under control and that it currently made no sense to declare an extraordinary situation, a provision in Swiss law on managing infectious diseases that allows the Federal Council to take charge of the situation over and above cantonal governments. Declaring an extraordinary situation would be pointless right now, said Berset. We currently have all the tools we need to act and we must...
Read More »FX Daily, December 15: The Bulls are Emboldened
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% to 1.0775 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P fell for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, the longest losing streak of the quarter, and this seemed to encourage profit-taking in the Asia Pacific region today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped for the second consecutive session, and even confirmation of the...
Read More »Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2020: -2.7 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...
Read More »Switzerland and UK sign agreement on mobility of service suppliers
The UK market is being opened up to Switzerland in more than 30 service sectors Keystone An agreement that secures reciprocal, facilitated market access for service providers from Switzerland and Britain from January 1 has been signed by Economics Minister Guy Parmelin and Liz Truss, the British Secretary of State for International Trade. The Services Mobility Agreement (SMA), signed in London on Monday, regulates the mutual access and temporary stay of service...
Read More »FOMC Preview
The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in the coming months. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS The US outlook has worsened since the November FOMC meeting. Infection numbers are making new highs with no sign of abating. There is no national strategy to contain the...
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