Tag Archives: Featured

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the...

If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation. I have covered the many reasons why the U.S. dollar (USD) has strengthened in dozens of posts over the past 5 years, (Could the U.S. Dollar Rise 50%?, January 12, 2011), and I described the positive dynamics of bitcoin last summer in An Everyman’s...

Headlines Week January 09, 2017 Who has read Milton Friedman knows that the Trump reflation trade is now showing its positive side. US wages are rising by 2.5%, while inflation is still relatively low. According to Friedman, inflation will increase only later. This implies that speculators are long the dollar and short the Swiss franc and the euro during the weak inflation period. The last ECB meeting showed that the...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

The Swiss National Bank has announced 24 bn profits from 2016. Profits came from the dollar, yen and Canadian dollar, while the pound retreated by 15%. The EUR/CHF is only slightly weaker, mostly because the SNB actively supported the euro. SNB profits on USD, CAD and JPY, loses on GBP . The SNB mostly profited on rising U.S. stock markets, in particular the S&P500. SNB Profit Increases Thanks to Well Performing...

Summary: Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues. United States The major US equity indices reached record highs before the weekend even...

We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc Index has lost 1% over the course of the last month, while the dollar index improved by 2%. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, January 07(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge   Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years...

Profits are faltering for structural reasons that are not easily resolved.. The bedrock assumption of the Bull market is that corporate profits will keep rising indefinitely. Hiccups are allowed, but current stock market valuations are implicitly based on profits expanding. The fly in the ointment here is corporate profits have been stagnating since 2014. Here is the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) chart of pre-tax...

  Worst in Class BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things. Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said...