Tag Archives: Featured

The launch of futures on Bitcoins was rushed so quickly through the regulatory channels that the anticipation was short-lived. And as the recent price action amply demonstrates, the existence of a derivative market has not tamed the digital token’s volatility. It is still the early days, but Bitcoin futures do not look likely to change the world. On the other hand, any day now China is expected to launch a futures...

Having laid down our expectations for the World economy in 2018, in this note we describe a number of potential surprises to the outlook. The usual suspects, or ‘known unknowns’, include a larger-than-expected fiscal boost from US tax cuts, (geo-)political risks, economic policy mistakes, inflation surprises, a financial bubble burst, or a Minsky moment in China, to name a few. We chose to include some of the...

  A Difficult, but Also Exciting Year… Dear Readers, Another year is coming to a close, and the team at Acting Man wishes you and your loved ones a Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays and all the best for the new year. You have probably noticed that your main scribe was a lot less prolific this year than he normally tends to be; unfortunately, we were held back by health-related issues. We remain among the quick though...

We expect the ECB to announce a tapering of its asset purchase programme in the summer, but not to overreact to strong economic data. Our first choice as the title for our 2018 ECB outlook was “The courage not to act”, but regular readers will know that we used this hommage to Ben Bernanke earlier this year. Yet our faith in ECB’s courage knows no bounds and this still feels relevant today, with the caveat that the ECB...

The most important driver of the Swiss watch industry’s recovery has been the revival of the mainland China market. After years of impressive growth, the Swiss watch industry faced difficult conditions in 2015 and 2016, when exports declined by 3.2% and 9.9% respectively in value terms. The last time that there were two consecutive years of decline was in 1995-96. The appreciation of the Swiss franc, the collapse of...

Summary Fitch upgraded Indonesia by a notch to BBB with stable outlook. EU-Poland tensions entered a new phase. Cyril Ramaphosa was elected as the new ANC President over opponent Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Argentina’s lower house approved President Macri’s pension reform bill. Sebastian Pinera won the Chilean presidency in the second round vote. Mexico political risk is rising as the PRI slush money scandal widens....

The public prosecutor of the southern Swiss canton of Ticino has opened criminal proceedings over irregularities concerning the bankruptcy of regional carrier Darwin Airlines. According to the SonntagsZeitung paper, the Ticino public prosecutor opened criminal proceedings against “unknown persons” on Thursday after the bankruptcy office in Lugano drew his attention to suspected irregularities. The regional carrier,...

The collapse of a beam holding up the ventilation system was responsible for the tunnel closure in September (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Switzerland’s oldest traffic tunnel through the Alps reopened on Christmas eve after a three-month closure due to problems with the ventilation system. After extensive repair work, the tunnel that connects Martigny in the western Swiss canton of Valais with the Aosta...

A more human world lies just beyond the edge of the Status Quo. Readers often ask me to post something hopeful, and I understand why: doom-and-gloom gets tiresome. Human beings need hope just as they need oxygen, and the destruction of the Status Quo via over-reach and internal contradictions doesn’t leave much to be happy about. The most hopeful thing in my mind is that the Status Quo is devolving from its internal...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. At 1.67 points, the UBS consumption indicator was above its long-term average in November, indicating solid consumption growth in 2018. Thanks to solid economic growth, private consumption will likely continue...