Tag Archives: Featured

FOMC Strategy Revisited As readers know, investment and trading decisions can be optimized with the help of statistics. One way of doing so is offered by the FOMC meeting strategy. The rate hikes are actually leading somewhere – after the Wile E. Coyote moment, the FOMC meeting strategy is especially useful - Click to enlarge A study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2011 examined the effect of...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.1587 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is paring yesterday’s gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back below the 2.70% level after pushing 2.73% briefly. European bonds have also eased, with yields one-two basis points lower. It is thus far a mild...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

In January, the KOF Economic Barometer does not continue its upward tendency, which started in September 2017, but has declined. However, despite the decline, the indicator remains well above its long-term average. It still indicates a more dynamic economic development than in mid-2017. The recovery of the Swiss economy is thus likely to continue, albeit with slightly less momentum than indicated in the past few...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair shows some bullish bias to approach retesting the previously broken support that turns into key resistance now at 0.9418, noticing that stochastic loses its bullish momentum clearly to reach the overbought areas, while the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price. Therefore, our bearish overview will remain active for today unless breaching 0.9418 level and holding above it,...

Some 59% of Swiss households were rentals in 2015, according to the most recent figures. The average monthly rent across the country came in at just over CHF1,300 ($1,395). The numbers were released on Monday by the Federal Statistical Office and reflect the situation at the end of 2015, when 2.1 million rented accommodations were recorded. The regions with the highest proportion of renting were the urban cantons of...

Economic Reports Production Production ended the year on a strong note but early readings from January are not as positive. The December industrial production report headline was strong at a 0.9% gain but a lot of that strength was in the mining (oil drilling) and utility sectors. Mining has actually led the way the last year as rig count has risen with drilling activity. I’d love to see our economy less dependent on...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.33% to 1.1559 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is modestly firmer, but nothing to suggest a outright correction rather than consolidation. However, have a dramatic drop over the past month, much more than we think is justified by macroeconomic developments and interest...

If you rent a home in Switzerland it is more likely to belong to an individual than a big real estate company or pension fund. © Kevkhiev Yury | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge In 2017, 49% of residential rental properties in Switzerland were owned by individuals, according to Statistics published by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The highest rate of rental home ownership by individuals was in the...

Silver Bullion: Once and Future Money – “Silver is as much a monetary metal as gold” – Rickards – U.S. following footsteps of Roman Empire which collapsed due to currency debasement (must see table) – Silver bullion is set to rally due to a combination of supply/demand fundamentals, geopolitical pressures creating safe haven demand, and increasing inflation expectations as confidence in central banking and fiat money...