French rail unions have called a series of on-off strikes to the end of June to protest the government's reform plans. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Rail services between Switzerland and France are limited on Saturday, owing to a strike by French workers against railway reforms. Most high-speed train (TGV) services have been cancelled, with the exception of six return journeys between Paris and Zurich (2),...
Read More »FX Daily, May 01: Little Help on May Day
Most of the world’s financial centers are closed for the May Day holiday, but the lack of participation has not prevented the extension of the US dollar’s recovery. The Dollar Index has traded above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year. No new catalyst has emerged. The widening interest rate differential in the dollar’s favor over Germany, for example, is unprecedented. Just like Fed officials can...
Read More »Transitory’s Japanese Cousin
Thomas Hoenig was President of the Federal Reserve’s Kansas City branch for two decades. He left that post in 2011 to become Vice Chairman of the FDIC. Before that, Mr. Hoenig as a voting member of the FOMC in 2010 cast the lone dissenting vote in each of the eight policy meetings that year (meaning he was against QE2, too). This makes him, apparently, the hawk of all hawks. In January 2011, in his capacity as still...
Read More »Wrong-Way Breakout in Silver – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Unfulfilled Prophecies The price of gold fell $12 last week, but that of silver dropped 63 cents. What’s up with silver?! A prominent analyst wrote on April 19 of the “breakout” in silver. Of course, without the benefit of the basis and the Monetary Metals fundamental price, he could only see the price chart, plus the...
Read More »“Was Vollgeld bringt – und was nicht (Sovereign Money—Pluses and Minuses),” SRF, 2018
[embedded content] Wer soll Franken herstellen dürfen? Nur die Schweizerische Nationalbank, oder auch die Geschäftsbanken wie UBS, CS oder die Kantonalbanken? Ginge es nach der Vollgeld-Initiative, über die wir am 10. Juni abstimmen, wäre künftig klar: Geld als gesetzliches Zahlungsmittel gäbe es nur von der SNB. Offsetmaschine zum Druck von Schweizer Banknoten bei der Schweizerischen Nationalbank. Keystone - Click to...
Read More »KOF Economic Barometer: Economic Outlook Remains Stable
The KOF Economic Barometer for April points to an almost stable economic development. It has risen minimally, by 0.2 points, to 105.3 points. Although the Barometer currently does not reach the positive values seen at the turn of the year 2017/2018, the current value is clearly above long-term average. The Swiss economic outlook remains favourable. In April, the KOF Economic Barometer rose slightly to 105.3...
Read More »One in four Swiss tenants wants to move, but can’t
More than a quarter of tenants in Switzerland are unhappy with their accommodation, but are unable to move – especially for financial reasons. A survey published by online price comparison portal comparis.chexternal link on Thursday has found that 26% of Swiss tenants consider their housing situation to be unsatisfactory. Of the 4,000 tenants surveyed, 67% said that they could not afford to move to a better place....
Read More »FX Daily, April 30: Merger Monday
Swiss Franc The Euro stood unchanged at 1.1967 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint. It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Next Week in Context
A year ago, the Dutch and French elections signaled that UK referendum to leave the EU and the US election of Trump did not usher in a populist-nationalist epoch, such as the one that proceeded the last great financial crisis. The euro gapped higher and did not look back. We have contended that Macron’s victory, in particular, sparked a correction to the euro’s decline that began in mid-2014. Using technical tools, we...
Read More »Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview
Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a firm note, capping off a generally softer week overall. TRY and PHP were the best performers last week, while CLP and ZAR were the worst. US core PCE, ISM manufacturing, FOMC meeting, and jobs data all pose risks to EM this week. We remain a bit defensive on risk assets in general now. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, April 25 - Click to enlarge Korea Korea reports March IP...
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