Tag Archives: euro currency forecast

The euro has hit new lows against the US dollar. We are revising down our EUR/USD projections for the next few months.The euro broke to the downside from its tight trading range relative to the US dollar since the end of May. These new lows go against our expectations of a gradual appreciation of the single currency relative to the greenback in the second half of the year and indicate that we have underestimated the short-term risks related to the euro.As a consequence, we have lowered our...

The euro has hit new lows against the US dollar. We are revising down our EUR/USD projections for the next few months. The euro broke to the downside from its tight trading range relative to the US dollar since the end of May. These new lows go against our expectations of a gradual appreciation of the single currency relative to the greenback in the second half of the year and indicate that we have underestimated the...

An ECB commitment not to hike rates at least until summer 2019 has added to recent euro weakness against the dollar, but factors behind the long-term decline of the latter could soon come back to the fore.The ECB’s commitment on rates announced at its June monetary policy meeting showed it remains very prudent. Given recent unsupportive data, the euro likely faces high hurdles to significant appreciation in the short term. Macro data in the euro area may not be supportive in the very short...

The euro rose sharply against the US dollar after a speech by Mario Draghi today. We still expect the US dollar to strengthen in the coming months.The euro appreciated significantly against the US dollar (by as much as 1.4% at one stage) on 27 June, reaching a 10-month high. The main reaon was a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi at the ECB forum on central banking at Sintra. To a lesser extent, the ongoing struggle to find legislative consensus among the US Republican Party, highlighted...

Relatively robust growth in the US and an active Fed suggest markets are too bearish on the USD versus the euro, but the greenback’s potential is limited.The euro has significantly appreciated against the US dollar since the start of the year (roughly 7% by 8 June). The single currency has benefited from strong activity in Q1, higher inflation and reduced political uncertainties in the euro area, especially after the French presidential election. Meanwhile, the US dollar has been damped by...

Barring a French election surprise, the downside potential for the euro against the US dollar looks limited in the next few months, but there is still room for the US dollar to strengthen again.The monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) on 9 March and of the Federal Reserve on 15 March have put upward pressure on the euro versus the US dollar. Euro area real rates have risen on prospects for an early rate hike whereas US real rates have declined on the perceived...