Tag Archives: EUR/CHF

(The sporadic updates continue while I am on a two-week business trip. Now in Barcelona, participating in TradeTech FX Europe) Several developments have attracted our attention, but the key take away is that the global capital markets have stabilized after appearing downright frightful at the end of last week, as stocks, yields, and the dollar plummeted. Equities rallied om Monday and there was follow through buying in...

EUR/CHF The euro rose close to CHF 1.15 with the ECB meeting this week. Finally traders realized that the ECB committed not to hike rates for a very long time. The ECB will review and take a first decision on the bond purchasing program this autumn. However, this program will come to an end only when the inflation target of 2% becomes in reach. Strangely the EUR/CHF reacted with losses only on Friday. Where will Euro...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.35% to 1.1433 CHF.   FX Rates The US dollar is trading broadly lower. The ECB meeting looms large. Many, like ourselves, expected that when Draghi said in July that the asset purchases would be revisited in the fall, it to meant after the summer recess, not a legalistic definition of when fall begins. Still, there have been some reports, citing unnamed sources close to the ECB, that...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% to 1.1396 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar fell to new lows since mid-2015 against the Canadian dollar yesterday. It is flattish today as the market awaits the central bank’s decision. We are concerned that given the strong performance and market positioning, a rate...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.07% to 1.1406 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Reports suggesting that North Korea is moving an ICBM missile toward launch pad in the western part of the country at night to minimize detection, while South Korea is escalating its military preparedness and the US seeks new...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

EUR/CHF Let us remember why the euro has risen from 1.08 to 1.14 between June and August: Hopes that the French president Macron will help the French economy, similarly to the Trump reflation trade. Hopes that the ECB will finish their bond buying program earlier combined with quite good economic data. We are of the opinion that both points may be illusionary. The euro should not rise further. Politicians cannot...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.1441 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar recovery was marginally extendedin Asia, and while it remains firm, it is lost some of its momentum. The Fed’s target inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, may decline from 1.5% to 1.4%, according to the median forecast in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.1415 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s pre-weekend losses were extended initially in Asia before it recovered sufficiently to give European participant a better selling level. The dollar selling into the shallow bounce reflects the bearish sentiment, which as we...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...