Tag Archives: economy

This was a slight downward revision. Nothing to cheer and really nothing to write home about. September Durable Goods were revised down .1% MoM in Sept and .05% MoM in Aug. Here’s a picture of Factory Orders. Looking at this time series, it’s almost as if the recession that has been 2 years in the waiting was merely coming off a covid fever sugar high. Orders briefly went negative, but now climbing. Let’s see if we can maintain the positive momentum from Q3, stay...

The government wants to boost relations with ASEAN countries (Archive photo from 2017 with Swiss foreign minister and representatives from ASEAN countries). © Keystone / Peter Klaunzer The Swiss government has for the first time adopted a regional strategy for the Asia-Pacific region for the period 2023-2026. The move takes into account the growing importance of the southeast Asia region and complements the government’s China strategy, according to a government...

As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese “weather” balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven’t declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become so sprawling that it could easily  be the case that NORAD has no idea what the NWS has up in the air. And with all the UFO shooting going on, the NWS...

Your cares and troubles are gone There’ll be no more from now on! Happy days are here again! The skies above are clear again Let us sing a song of cheer again Happy days are here again! Lyrics: Jack Yellen, Music: Milton Ager That’s certainly how it’s felt since the turn of the new year with the NASDAQ up nearly 15%, European stocks continuing to recover, emerging markets anticipating a Chinese recovery and a solid January for the S&P 500. Bonds have been...

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months. Real disposable income is up 0.8% in the last six months but was down...

Overpaying for something that could be found in a different store (or online), under the right circumstances, makes both parties happier. After looking around a bit, I asked the cashier at a nearby convenience store if he had any nine-volt batteries because I didn’t see any on the shelf. To my good fortune, he did. I asked for two of them and pulled a $5 bill out of my wallet as he rang them up. “$12,” he said. I gasped a little, put the $5 away, and reached for my...

It’s that time again when the US government has to prepare itself for an internal battle to raise the debt ceiling so it can meet various obligations. This is a merry dance that has been danced before, as we mention below. For sure, every time it happens fewer and fewer people are convinced of the trustworthiness of the US dollar. This combined with the recent announcement by Saudi Arabia of its willingness to consider trading in currencies other than the US Dollar...

Inflation rates are continuing to rise across the globe, with the UK arguably leading this trend. More specifically, the UK inflation rate hit 10.7% in November, and while it dipped slightly from a peak of 11.1% in October, it remained considerably higher than the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This is impacting the cost of energy and food items markedly, creating a cost-of-living crisis as inflation continues to outstrip earnings across multiple industries. With...

Introduction The success of a business organization depends, to quite an extent, on the planning of resources. This planning keeps the business way above others. Budgeting, therefore, becomes a critical aspect of accounting. However, please keep in mind that financial planning in business is steeped in challenges because of the economic turmoil. Do you run your own small business? If yes, then you count yourself among the 99% of small and medium businesses run in...

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. I do know what the consensus view is, what the majority expects to happen, and that may be more useful. Because...