Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0806 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Performance Overview: Pfizer’s vaccine announcement eclipsed the US election as the key market driver. It spurred the unwinding of Covid trades in terms of sectors and yields. Emerging market currencies and the majors that benefit from world growth outperformed the perceived safe-havens, like the...
Read More »FX Daily, November 3: Risk Appetites Return as the US Goes to the Polls
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0706 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 3(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: More than 95 mln Americans voted before today, and many observers warn of a cliffhanger that could be decided in the courts. The polls sand surveys show strong odds in favor of a Democratic sweep. Looking at the capital markets, nothing looks amiss. The biggest rally in the S&P...
Read More »FX Daily, October 28: Animal Spirits Called in Sick
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.34% to 1.068 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Sickened by the surging virus, animal spirits are bed-ridden today. Several European countries are experiencing the most fatalities and illnesses in several months, and policymakers are responded with national restrictions. In 32 US states, hospitalizations have surged by over 10% in...
Read More »FX Daily, October 2: POTUS Infected: Is this the October Surprise?
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0784 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Before a US election, there is often speculation of a last-minute game-changing development. News earlier today that the US President and his wife have tested positive for the Covid virus has injected a new unknown into not only the US election but the markets as well. Many centers in...
Read More »FX Daily, September 14: UK Presses Ahead, China Strikes Out at German Pork Producers, and Moody’s Weighs on Turkey
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0762 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A flurry of deals, including the still-evolving Oracle-TikTok tie-up, helped lift equity markets in the Asia Pacific region. South Korea’s Kospi, and Indonesia, which had been battered last week, led the advance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third consecutive...
Read More »FX Daily, June 22: Dollar Begins Week on Back Foot
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% to 1.0664 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Investors begin the new week, perhaps slowed a bit by the weekend developments and the growth of new infections. Equities are mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance, though India bucked the regional trend and gained 1%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recovering...
Read More »Covid-19 Superspreading Events Database
By Koen Swinkels, on Medium, a database and preliminary interpretation subject to various caveats. The preliminary suggested interpretation is as follows: Nearly all SSEs in the database — more than 97% — took place indoors The great majority of SSEs happened during flu season in that location The vast majority took place in settings where people were essentially confined together, indoors, for a prolonged period (for example, nursing homes, prisons, cruise ships, worker housing)...
Read More »OECD forecasts drop in Swiss economic growth in 2020
Restrictions imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, such as store closures, will have a major impact on Swiss GDP in 2020, the OECD predicts. Keystone / Laurent Gillieron Even though restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of Covid-19 were less strict than in other countries, Switzerland will still see its GDP fall by 7.7%, if the pandemic is contained by summer. Gross domestic product will not rebound until 2021, according to the forecast published by the...
Read More »What Did Everyone Think Was Going To Happen?
Honestly, what did everyone think was going to happen? I know, I’ve seen the analyst estimates. They were talking like another six or seven perhaps eight million job losses on top of the twenty-plus already gone. Instead, the payroll report (Establishment Survey) blew everything away, coming in both at two and a half million but also sporting a plus sign. The Household Survey was even better, +3.8mm during May 2020. But, again, why wasn’t this expected? All this...
Read More »“Tractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis,” VoxEU, 2020
VoxEU, June 5, 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. HTML. A comparison of epidemiological models for use in economic analyses, based on the CEPR discussion paper.
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