Tag Archives: China

Ben Bernanke once admitted how the job of the post-truth “central banker” is to try to convince the market to do your work for you. What he didn’t say was that this was the only prayer officials had for any success. Because if the market ever decided that talk wasn’t enough, only real money in hand would do, everyone’d be screwed. Yes, 2008. Also everything after. The Chinese have followed closely this style having realized what took Bernanke too long. That is, the...

Overview: Central banks are committed to combatting inflation even as the economies weaken. This is taking a toll on investor sentiment and is dragging down equities. Outside of China, where the PMI confirms a recovery, and India, where most large bourses in the region were off 1-2%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 snapped a three-day rally yesterday with a 0.65% decline. Near midday, its loss today is approaching 2%. US futures are 1.5%-2.0% lower. Bond yields are falling. The...

Overview: The sharp sell-off in US equities yesterday, led by tech, is weighing on today’s activity. Most of the large Asia Pacific markets excluding Japan and India lost more than 1% today. The three-day rally in Europe’s Stoxx 600 is being snapped today. US futures are posting small losses. The US 10-year yield is little changed around 3.17%, while European benchmarks are narrowly mixed, with the periphery doing better than the core. The dollar is enjoying a firmer...

Overview: Yesterday’s strong US equity gains failed to carry over into today’s session. Japanese and Australian shares fared the best among the large Asia Pacific market, with the Nikkei off less than 0.4% and the ASX off less than 0.25%. However, China’s markets were off more than 1%, while Taiwan and South Korea indices slumped more than 2%. India is off nearly 1.5%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 1.5% and is giving back all of its gains in the past three sessions. US...

If the March gasoline/oil spike hit a weak global economy really hard and caused what more and more looks like a recessionary shock, a(n un)healthy part of it was the acceleration of Euro$ #5 concurrently rippling through the global reserve system. This much was apparent right from the start, with financial markets gone haywire three months ago (mid-March seasonal bottleneck), and then more of the same into April right to now. The updated TIC data for the month of...

Overview: Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region lost ground today. China’s Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and India were notable exceptions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is at its lowest level since June 2020. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is forging a base ahead of 4000 and is trading quietly with a small upside bias. The French stock market lagging after Macron lost his parliamentary majority, is raising questions about his reform agenda. US equity futures are firm, but the...

While the world fixated on the US CPI, it was other “inflation” data from across the Pacific that is telling the real economic story. Having conflated the former with a red-hot economy, the fact American consumer prices aren’t tied to the actual economic situation has been lost in the shuffle of the FOMC’s hawkishness, with markets obliged to price wrong-way Jay. The short end of the yield curve (USTs and elsewhere) is plotting like FOMC dots, whenever oil and crude...

Overview: Better than expected Chinese data and an unscheduled ECB meeting are the highlights ahead of the North American session that features the May US retail sales report and other high frequency data before the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Asia Pacific equities outside of Hong Kong and China fell. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up almost 1% as it tries to snap a six-day slide. US futures are posting modest gains. Bond markets in Europe and the US are rallying. The ECB...

Overview: The prospect of a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy has spurred a sharp sell-off in global equities and bonds and sent the dollar sharply higher. The large Asia Pacific bourses were off mostly 2%-4%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off 2.2%, its fifth consecutive losing session. US futures are off also. The NASDAQ was down 3.5% before the weekend and the S&P 500 fell 2.9%. The dollar rocks. The Scandis and Antipodean currencies are bearing the brunt and are...

Overview: Equity markets in Asia Pacific and Europe are weaker.  The main exception in Asia Pacific was India, where the market rose by about 0.75%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is lower for the third consecutive session and is now down on the week.  US futures are up around 0.3%-0.4%.  The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering a little above 3%.  European peripheral yields are softer ahead of the ECB meeting.  New Zealand’s 10-year yield jumped eight basis points in response...