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Tag Archives: Chart Update

Wild Speculation in Crude Oil – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Crude Oil Market Structure – Extremes in Speculative Net Long Positions On May 28, markets were closed so this Report is coming out a day later than normal. The price of gold rose nine bucks, and the price of silver 4 pennies. With little action here, we thought we would write 1,000 words’ worth about oil. Here is a chart...

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Gold and Gold Stocks – Conundrum Alert

Moribund Meandering Earlier this week, the USD gold price was pushed rather unceremoniously off its perch above the $1300 level, where it had been comfortably ensconced all year after its usual seasonal rally around the turn of the year. For a while it seemed as though the $1,300 level may actually hold, but persistent US dollar strength nixed that idea. Previously many observers (too many?) expected gold to finally...

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Global Turn-of-the-Month Effect – An Update

In Other Global Markets the “Turn-of-the-Month” Effect Generates Even Bigger Returns than in the US The “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena. It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically far less profitable for investors. The effect has been studied...

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Scorn and Reverence – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Shill Alarm One well-known commentator this week opined about the US health care industry: “…the system is designed the churn and burn… to push people through the clinics as quickly as possible. The standard of care now is to prescribe some medication (usually antibiotics) and send people on their way without taking the...

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How to Get Ahead in Today’s Economy

“Literally On Fire” This week brought forward more evidence that we are living in a fabricated world. The popular story-line presents a world of pure awesomeness. The common experience, however,  falls grossly short. There are many degrees of awesomeness, up to total awesomeness – which is where we are these days, in the age of total awesomeness, just a short skip away from the Nirvana era. - Click to enlarge What is...

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US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls

A Movie We Have Seen Before – Repatriation Effect? There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad monetary aggregate M2, because the component of TMS-2 responsible for the jump is not included in M2. Let us begin by looking at a chart of the TMS-2 growth rate and its...

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Fear and Longing – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Waiting for Permanent Backwardation  The price of gold dropped 9 bucks, while that of silver rose 3 cents. Readers often ask us if permanent backwardation (when gold withdraws its bid on the dollar) is still coming. We say it is certain (unless we can avert it by offering interest on gold at large scale). They ask is it...

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Wrong-Way Breakout in Silver – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Unfulfilled Prophecies The price of gold fell $12 last week, but that of silver dropped 63 cents. What’s up with silver?! A prominent analyst wrote on April 19 of the “breakout” in silver. Of course, without the benefit of the basis and the Monetary Metals fundamental price, he could only see the price chart, plus the...

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Russian Gold Rush – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango  Goldfinger Strikes, Sort Of This week, we saw a tweet from a prominent goldbug. He said, “Russia added another 9 tons of gold to its reserves in March. The hits just keep coming.” How many errors in this short quip? We count six, exactly one error for every two words. One, we call this the fallacy of the famous market...

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US Stock Market: Happy Days Are Here Again? Not so Fast…

A “Typical” Correction? A Narrative Fail May Be in Store Obviously, assorted crash analogs have by now gone out of the window – we already noted that the market was late if it was to continue to mimic them, as the decline would have had to accelerate in the last week of March to remain in compliance with the “official time table”. Of course crashes are always very low probability events – but there are occasions when...

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