Tag Archives: Brexit

[embedded content] I joined CNBC Asia’s Amanda Drury and Sri Jegarajah via Skype earlier today as the new week was beginning in Asia. In this three minute clip, we discuss the outlook for the BOJ and sterling. Most of the rise in Japan’s inflation is due to food and energy prices. Despite an aggressive balance-sheet expansion effort, the BOJ has missed its target by a long shot. It appears to have all but given up on...

The divergence thesis that drives our constructive outlook for the dollar received more support last week than we expected. A few hours after investors learned that Japan’s flash PMI remained below the 50 boom/bust level, Europe reported disappointing PMI data as well. And a few hours after that the US reported that retail sales surged in March by the most in a year and a half (1.6%). This coupled with the new cyclical...

Photo: sabreguy29 from flickr (CC BY 2.0) Von Dr. Alexander Fink, Universität Leipzig, Senior Fellow des IREF – Institute for Research in Economic and Fiscal Issues und Fabian Kurz, Student der Volkswirtschaftslehre, ehemaliger Praktikant bei Prometheus. Die Zollerhebung verzögert den Transport zum Kunden. Container stapeln sich in Häfen und warten auf die Abfertigung durch die Zollbehörden. Dies dauert im weltweiten Durchschnitt 3 bis 4 Tage. Ein zusätzlicher Transporttag verursacht für ein...

The EU has granted a Brexit deadline extension to 31 October of this year. The next step after this extension could be another extension.Following the EU Council summit, 31 October 2019 is the new Brexit deadline. Given that we see limited probability of a sudden unknotting of the current UK parliamentary gridlock, our core scenario is that the deadline will be extended again. The current timeframe is too short to really work on an alternative to the current ‘Withdrawal Agreement’, which has...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.37% at 1.1303 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday for the ninth session in the past ten, but the coattails are short and global equities are trading with a heavier bias today. A firm CPI reading in China took a toll local shares with the...

(I am in Mexico at the World Trade Center General Assembly, participating on a panel about USMCA–NAFTA2.0–for which approval remains elusive.  It is possible that the US threatens to pull out of NAFTA 1.0 to force action by the US Congress.  Mexico is due to pass legislation this week that may meet demands by the some in the US and Canada for stronger labor protections. However, with the steel and aluminum tariffs still...

It seems to be well appreciated among by policymakers and investors that the system is ill-prepared to cope with another financial crisis. It is understandable that so many are concerned that the end of the business cycle could trigger a financial crisis. In practice, it seems like it has worked the other way around. The financial crisis triggered the Great Recession. The economy previously contracted when the tech...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.03% at 1.1219 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents. Although we have argued that the German...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% at 1.1207 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments. The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons effort to block a no-deal...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% at 1.1188 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor. The connotation is of beautiful harmony. And investors have taken the bit and run with it. Optimism that the US and China near reaching an agreement on trade....