Tag Archives: Bank of England

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0875 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The holiday mood has tightened its grip on the capital markets, and global investors have nearly completely ignored the impeachment of the US President as it has little economic or policy significance. US equities reached new record highs yesterday with the S&P 500 moving above...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.0893 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It is risky to read too much into the price action in holiday-thin markets, but inflation fears are beginning to surface. The price of January WTI is around $61, having tested $50 a barrel in Q3. The CRB Index made new highs for the year yesterday and is up almost 9% for the year....

After last week’s flurry of events, market activity is set to slow over the next three weeks. But what a flurry of events it was. A new NAFTA apparently has been agreed, and it is set to be approved by the US House of Representatives next week and the Senate early next year. The US and China struck an agreement that will get rid of the immediate tariff threat and unwind half of the punitive tariffs in exchange for a commitment to buy twice the amount of agriculture...

There have been plenty of developments warning of a global economic slowdown. Yet, seemingly to justify the continued advance in equity prices, there has begun to be talk of possible cyclical and global rebound. That is the new constellation, connecting the better than expected Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese September industrial output figures,  a slightly stronger than expected Q3  GDP reports from the US and the eurozone.  Ahead of the weekend, China reported...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.22% to 1.0975 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Central bank activity is still very much the flavor of the day, but investors are looking for the next focus. The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank stood pat, while Indonesia cut for the third consecutive time and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Saudi Arabia quickly followed the Fed. Brazil...

Huw van Steenis’ summarizes his report as follows (my emphasis): A new economy is emerging driven by changes in technology, demographics and the environment. The UK is also undergoing several major transitions that finance has to respond to. What this means for finance Finance is likely to undergo intense change over the coming decade. The shift to digitally-enabled services and firms is already profound and appears to be accelerating. The shift from banks to market-based finance is...

There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on July 31. We never thought the chances of a 50 bp move were anything but negligible, though even at this late stage, the market appears to be pricing in about a one-in-five chance. Although a minority, and maybe worth a dissent or two (Rosengren? George?), we are sympathetic to those Fed officials that do not...

We expect the BoE to cut rates in November, even if a Brexit deal is reached by October. UK sovereign bond (gilts) yields have fallen this year, with the 10-year yield dropping by 59 basis points (bps) to 0.69%1, in concert with other core sovereign bond yields. The Brexit saga, along with the global slowdown forcing many central banks to turn dovish, are the main factors behind this steep fall. Taking stock of this...

We expect the BoE to cut rates in November, even if a Brexit deal is reached by October.UK sovereign bond (gilts) yields have fallen this year, with the 10-year yield dropping by 59 basis points (bps) to 0.69%1, in concert with other core sovereign bond yields. The Brexit saga, along with the global slowdown forcing many central banks to turn dovish, are the main factors behind this steep fall.Taking stock of this context, we now expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates by 25 bps at its...

There is little doubt after the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony last week and the FOMC minutes that a rate cut will be delivered at the end of the month. Similarly, after comments by several ECB officials and the record of their recent meetin.g confirms it too is prepared to adjust policy. The timing of the ECB’s move is more debatable, an adjustment at the July 25 meeting appears to have increased. While a...