SNB & CHF

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.22% to 1.0942 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Oil prices surged in the initial reaction to the unprecedented drone attack on Saudi Arabia facilities. Saudi Arabia may be able to restore around half of the lost production in a few days. Saudi Arabia and other countries, including the US, prepared to tap strategic reserves, oil...

The prospect of a third trade truce between the US and China helped underpin the optimism that extended the rally in equities. Bond yields continued to back-up after dropping precipitously in August, led by a more than 30 bp increase in the US yield benchmark. The Dollar Index fell for the second consecutive week, something it had not done this quarter. United States The Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 18 is the most important calendar event in the week...

What was “possible” yesterday is now a low-cost proven capability, and the consequences are far from predictable. Predictably, the mainstream media is serving up heaping portions of reassurances that the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities are no big deal and full production will resume shortly. The obvious goal is to placate global markets fearful of an energy disruption that could tip a precarious global economy into recession. The real impact isn’t on...

Doing more of what’s failed for ten years will finally fail spectacularly.. It was a huge relief to see the charts of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the U.S. retail sector ETF (RTH): both have soared to the moon, signaling that both the U.S. and global economies are booming: the BDI is widely regarded as a proxy for global shipping, which is a proxy for global trade and economic activity. Batic Dry Index, 2018-2019 - Click to enlarge Amazon is 18% of the RTH...

EUR/JPY rallies hard following hawkish ECB cut and trade war optimism.  EUR/JPY tracking positive sentiment in financial and commodity markets.  While the trade war tensions seem to be easing, with stocks climbing and risk appetite returning in droves to financial and commodity markets, EUR/JPY is up 0.79% on the US session so far following what has been perceived as a hawkish rate cut from the European Central Bank earlier today. EUR/JPY is currently trading at...

A few hours after the ECB announced a new package of monetary accommodation, I joined a discussion on CNBC Asia with Nancy Hungerford and Sir Jegarajah. Here is a clip of part of our discussion.  I make two points. The first is about the euro’s price action. What impressed me about it was that the euro posted an outside up day, trading on both sides of the previous day’s range and closing above its high. When Sri and I were talking early in the Asian morning, there...

US-China relations appear to be thawing Trading was volatile after the ECB decision; we are still dollar bulls EM has benefitted from the shift in the global backdrop this week The US data highlight is August retail sales Vietnam cut rates 25 bp to 6.0%; Turkey reported July current account and IP The dollar is mostly softer against the majors ahead of the US retail sales data. Sterling and Swissie are outperforming, while Kiwi and Loonie are underperforming. EM...

All of America’s bubbles will pop, and sooner rather than later. Financial bubbles manifest three dynamics: the one we’re most familiar with is human greed, the desire to exploit a windfall and catch a work-free ride to riches. The second dynamic gets much less attention: financial manias arise when there is no other more productive, profitable use for capital, and these periods occur when there is an abundance of credit available to inflate the bubbles. Humans...

Earlier this morning, there was an added wobble in European bond prices after an unconfirmed MNI report said the ECB could delay the launch of QE on Thursday and make it data dependent. While skeptics quickly slammed the story, saying it was just a clickbait by MarketNews… About this MNI story on a possible delay in ECB QE announcement: 1) No substance, including from the ECB “sources” 2) Let’s hope the story is as accurate as the previous ones — Frederik Ducrozet...

USD/CHF fails to sustain the bounce off key support-confluence including 200-HMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A downside break highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level while 200-DMA caps the upside. Failures to sustain the bounce off 200-hour moving average (HMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest run-up drag the USD/CHF back to the key support-confluence while taking rounds to 0.9900 ahead of Friday’s European open. Should prices slip below 0.9890...