SNB & CHF

© Swisshippo | Dreamstime.com The amount of money paid by “rich” cantons to “poor” ones will rise by CHF 61 million to CHF 5.3 billion in 2020, according to a recent government press release. The only French-speaking canton paying will be Geneva. All of the rest will see the sums they receive rise compared to 2019. In 2020, Geneva will pay CHF 275 million, down slightly from the CHF 300 million it paid in 2019. In 2020, the canton of Fribourg will receive CHF 387...

Sometimes the news drives the markets and but now it seems that the markets are driving the news. The dramatic swing in market sentiment from fearing a repeat of Q4 18 and the pessimism of World Bank/IMF forecasts have been cast aside for a few data points and a tease from the world’s two largest economies that an agreement to begin a de-escalation process not just extending the third tariff truce. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the People’s Bank of...

EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal will be struck soon that lower existing tariffs.  AMERICAS Mexico...

Beta-driven Fantasy The decade long bull market run, aside from making everyone ridiculously rich, has opened up a new array of competencies. The proliferation of ETFs, for instance, has precipitated a heyday for the ETF Analyst. So, too, blind faith in data has prompted the rise of Psychic Quants… who see the future by modeling the past. Gandalf, quant of Middle-Earth, dispensing sage advice. [PT] For the big financial outfits, optimizing systematic – preprogrammed...

For most experts, deflation is considered bad news since it generates expectations of a decline in prices. As a result, they believe, consumers are likely to postpone their buying of goods at present since they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future. This weakens the overall flow of spending and in turn weakens the economy. Hence, such commentators hold that policies that counter deflation will also counter the slump. Will Reversing Deflation Prevent...

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Kein Sparschweinchen aus SNB-Pfründen. (Bild: Shutterstock.com/ valeriiaarnaud) Das Vermögen von Norwegens erfolgreichem Staatsfonds hat die Billionen-Franken-Schwelle geknackt und erntet entsprechende mediale Aufmerksamkeit. Dies lässt auch in der Schweiz Forderungen nach einem ähnlichen Konstrukt aufleben, um vorhersehbare AHV-Finanzierungslücken dereinst zu decken. Als vielversprechender Finanzierungsfavorit gilt die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB), die für die...

Extinction Rebellion Switzerland’s Facebook cover photo In September 2019, groups of people belonging to the group Extinction Rebellion blocked two road bridges in Lausanne. Local police cleared the bridges by removing, in some cases carrying, protesters away. On 7 November 2019, 117 of the people involved in the bridge protests were convicted and fined for breaking Switzerland’s penal code, according to RTS. One person was convicted of violence and the rest of...

Better-than-expected is the new strong. Even I’m amazed at the satisfaction being taken with October’s payroll numbers. While you never focus too much on one monthly estimate, this time it might be time to do so. But not for those other reasons. Sure, GM caused some disruption and the Census is winding down, both putting everyone on edge. The whisper numbers were low double digits, maybe even a negative headline estimate. Markets had been riding pure pessimism...