SNB & CHF

Both Brazil and Mexico are in a good position to benefit from the current improvement in market sentiment. However, when comparing the factors driving the currencies of both countries, we think there are relatively more near-term positives for the Mexican peso than for the Brazilian real. These include: (1) the peso will maintain its carry advantage for some time; (2) hedging-related flows should be mixed for the real, but could net as a drag; (3) Mexico’s near-term...

◆ “It may be time to replace bonds with gold”according to the just released excellent new Investment Update by the World Gold Council. ◆ Central banks have shifted to a new regime of easy monetary policy, thus reducing expected bond returns. ◆ As negative yielding debt increases alongside stock-to-yield valuations to all-time highs, gold may become an attractive and more effective diversifier than bonds, justifying a higher portfolio allocation than historical...

© Shawn Hempel | Dreamstime.com A commission of the Council of States, Switzerland’s upper house, is in favour of new rules to protect whistleblowers. The proposed rules, which would help to protect those who expose secretive information or activity that is deemed illegal or unethical, were supported by 6 commission votes to 2 with 4 abstentions. The proposal, which would be incorporated into employment law, would follow the cascade principle put forward by the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% to 1.1023 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 1(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: An unexpected increase in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI helped lift Asia Pacific equities after the S&P 500 stumbled yesterday amid concerns that there will not be a phase 2 in US-China trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.3% in October, and with the help of...

01.11.2019 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in October 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package holidays and hotel accommodation. The prices...

01.11.2019 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in September 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.9% in September 2019 compared with the previous year. Real growth...

  In his prepared remarks delivered to pension managers on Thursday, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said negative interest rates and readiness to intervene in the forex market was still essential to ease the pressure on the Swiss Franc. “Without negative rates, the Franc would be more attractive and rise in value,” Jordan further argued. The USD/CHF pair largely ignored Jordan’s comments and was last seen trading at 0.9875, down 0.18% on a daily basis....

USD/CHF is consolidating its losses this Thursday. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9855 support. USD/CHF daily chart On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading in a range below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is approaching the October low, currently at the 0.9837 price level. USD/CHF daily chart(see more posts on USD/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge USD/CHF four-hour chart USD/CHF is under bearish pressure below its main SMAs as the market...

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring even more hikes throughout 2019, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them. Expecting the easy disappearance of “transitory” factors, that Fed pause was to be followed by the second half rebound...

What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever reasons slows down. That leads to inventory piling up across the various levels of the supply chain....