SNB & CHF

The US dollar is mixed ahead of the US employment data.  The Antipodeans and Scandis are doing best while sterling and the Canadian dollar are under-performing.  Investors appetite for risk has increased.  The market is confident that the next Fed hike is unlikely to be delivered before June.  The implied yield on the June Fed funds futures contract is 45 bp.  This is up from 38.5 bp on February 11.  If the Fed were to hike rates on June 15 and Fed funds were to average 38 bp in the first...

For the Swiss press, 2015 has been the year of the “Swiss franc shock“. Based on the GDP release from the Swiss ministry of economics (SECO), we wanted to know what in the Swiss economy got really “shocked”. The following table compares the Swiss GDP components and population data since 2009. Economists might think that the “Swiss franc shock“, the suddenly far stronger franc in January 2015 should lead to less exports and more imports, hence to a considerable weakening of “Net...

PickingAlpha.com talks to Mark O'Byrne, Founder and Research Director of GoldCore. GoldCore was founded in Dublin in 2003, GoldCore were Ireland’s first gold broker and are now Ireland’s most established and trusted gold broker. GoldCore are an Irish based and Irish owned company who have become one of the leading gold brokers in the world, serving clients throughout Ireland and in over 45 countries internationally. Mark O'Byrne gives his detailed insight on the Gold Market, answering...

It could be argued that the Geneva International Motor Show is just a tad macho. At the preview days for the press, you could hardly see the new metal for all the stick-thin models striking poses in front of the cars. Is it really necessary in this day and age to dress up new motors with pretty girls? (Julie Hunt, swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on...

Taxi drivers from all over Switzerland have been demonstrating in the capital Bern against “unfair competition” from the ride-sharing service Uber. The unions have accused it of undercutting fare prices, but Uber says it offers much-needed competition in a country where taxi fares are sky high. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international...

Over the next fortnight the major central banks, including the ECB, BOJ, Fed and BOE will hold policy-making meetings.  Of the four, expectations are the highest for the ECB to ease policy. Given the poor economic data, including deflationary pressures, and the tightening of financial conditions, the BOJ could also adjust policy.  However, after the G20 meeting, it seems as if the bar for fresh monetary easing is higher than it had previously appeared.  This does not mean that the BOJ...

The global capital markets are quiet today, as investors await fresh impetus which could come in the form of tomorrow's US national employment figures.  There is also next week's ECB meeting that looms large for investors.   The euro is trading quietly.  In fact, through the European morning, the euro has been confined to a little more than a third of a cent above $1.0850.   It has not been above $1.09 since Monday, and despite contrasting economic signals, and the anticipation of more...

Iranian elections have supposedly put a very nice ‘moderate’ spin on Iranian politics in parliamentary ranks, and more importantly, Assembly of Experts composition. While it would be churlish to deny, it represents a significant step forward for President Rouhani’s agenda to 2017, albeit a number of vital caveats remain for how real any political shift actually is. We’ll do the Parliament first, and then move onto the Assembly second. With a ‘grand finale’ of what it means for Iranian...

Deflation is portrayed as the great economic scourge.  It exacerbates debt servicing costs and encourages consumers to defer purchases.  Central banks in Japan and Europe have responded with aggressive, unorthodox measures, often combining asset purchase programs with negative interest rates.   However, deflation is not very deep, and the measurement is not very precise.  In recent years, it has become common for many central banks to define their mandate of price stability as being...

The angst that characterized the first several weeks of the year continues to dissipate.  Major equity markets are extending their two-week recovery into a third week. Immediate concerns about the US falling into a recession have eased.  The market have withstood some downward pressure on the Chinese yuan.  Late yesterday Moody's cut its outlook for China's credit rating to negative from stable, and this did not cause much of a ripple in the capital markets.  In fact, the Shanghai and...