SNB & CHF

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average and the rebound carried to just over the 50 day moving average. That is about “as expected” as you can get for a stock...

Spring is around the corner in the Northern Hemisphere, and with it, a sense of a Goldilocks moment.  Growth is sufficiently strong to see employment grow and absorb the economic slack.  In the US, the participation rate of the key 25-54 aged demographic group has risen and now stands at 89.3%, the highest since 2010.  Europe enjoys the broadest economic expansion in more than a decade, and while Japanese growth has not...

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a firm note and capped off a mostly firmer week. MXN, KRW, and ZAR were the best performers last week, while CLP, CZK, and PLN were the worst. US jobs data was mixed, with markets focusing on weak average hourly earnings rather than on the strong NFP number. Still, the data did nothing to change market expectations for a 25 bp by the FOMC this month. Stock Markets Emerging Markets,...

Women’s Pension Crisis Highlights Dangers To Savers International Women’s Day highlights the underreported UK Women’s pension crisis 2.66 million affected by UK government’s change to state pension act Women’s pension crisis is one of many in the UK, where there is a £710bn deficit for prospective retirees Changes by government highlights the counterparty risks pensions are exposed to Global problem as pensions gap of...

Swiss butchers and supermarkets are selling less pork (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Less meat was sold in Switzerland in 2017 than the previous year, although the average Swiss still consumed a good 26 kilograms of meat over the year. Sales of domestic and imported meat fell by 0.7% to 221,468 tonnes, the Federal Office for Agricultureexternal link reported. Turnover also dropped by 0.7% to CHF4.64 billion...

The price and the VAT on a receipt in Zurich (Keystone) - Click to enlarge More than 84% of voters have renewed the government’s right to tax its citizens and companies for another 15 years. This is a unique feature of Switzerland’s political system of direct democracy and federalism. External Content Live results of March 04 2018 ballot: Licence fee for public broadcasters and Federal taxes 2021 Live...

China’s General Administration of Customs reported that Chinese exports to all other countries were in February 2018 an incredible 44.5% more than they were in February 2017. Such a massive growth rate coming now has served to intensify the economic boom narrative. A strengthening U.S. recovery is helping underpin China’s outlook as Asia’s biggest economy seeks to cut excess capacity and transition to reliance on...

In a world dominated by mobile capital, mobile capital is the comparative advantage. Defenders and critics of “free trade” and globalization tend to present the issue as either/or: it’s inherently good or bad. In the real world, it’s not that simple. The confusion starts with defining free trade (and by extension, globalization). In the classical definition of free trade espoused by 18th century British economist David...

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