SNB & CHF

Can you remember back to when you were two or three years old? Toddlers often think that there are little people inside the TV (or maybe this was only true when the TV was about as deep as it was wide—and maybe kids today don’t think this when looking at a 60-inch flatscreen…) Anyways, it’s normal to grow out of this naïve view of television. No one believes it past the age of eight, much less into adulthood. Purchasing Power and Intrinsicism This is a simple...

The vast majority of market participants are about as ready for a semi-random “volatility event” as the dinosaurs were for the meteor strike that doomed them to oblivion. Judging by euphoric gambler–oops I mean “investor”–sentiment and measures of volatility, risk of a market drop has been near-zero for the past 18 months. But risk was never actually low, it was only hidden. When it emerges, it’s a surprise only to those who mistakenly thought risk had vanished. As...

It’s now been more than eighteen months since governments began the new social experiment now known as “lockdowns.” Prior to 2020, forced “social distancing” was generally considered to be too costly in societal terms to justify such a risky experiment. Yet in 2020, led by health technocrats at the World Health Organization, nearly all national governments in the world suddenly and without precedent embraced the idea of lockdowns. On the other hand, the Swedish...

US factories are humming along, constrained only by supply issues which might occasionally limit production. That’s the story, anyway. There’s too much business because of them, manufacturers taking in only more orders by the day leaving them struggling to catch up. But what kind of stuff is it that is being ordered from our nation’s factories? Without thinking too much about it, you’d probably say that they’re ridiculously busy trying as best as possible to fill...

ASSET ALLOCATION We maintain our tactically neutral position on equities, with the notable exception of Japan, where we see scope for a re-start to Abenomics and for Japanese stocks to continue to close their performance gap with their peers in other developed markets. Though recourse to options trades, we are prepared for an increase in volatility as markets adjust to slowing growth momentum. While they may consolidate in the short term, we remain broadly optimistic...

Like the bond market and the yield curve, the inventory situation is most often forward-looking. Powell is tapering and ignoring the potential of an inventory overhang, pretty much the same way as a few years ago. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "36mm" by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Revisiting The Last Overhang: https://bit.ly/3isH5Nk...

Tax havens link up with a network of financial advisors and banks in numerous countries to funnel assets around the world. Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. A new set of leaked documents, dubbed the Pandora Papers, has again exposed the role of Swiss lawyers, accountants and consultants in managing the wealth of powerful clients. The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) has revealed the contents of 11.9 million tax...

Throughout the next weeks, we will regularly feature the keynote speeches held by our distinguished experts at this year’s digital Free Market Road Show.  The times we are living in – the pandemic – are times when our fundamental values are threatened maybe more than ever in modern times. More than ever in modern times because we are living not in a time of containment, with an Iron Curtain, or a Bamboo Curtain, dividing the world in two as in the Cold...

04.10.2021 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.2% in nominal terms in August 2021 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.5% in August 2021 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes...

04.10.2021 – The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in September 2021 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.3 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +0.9%. compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that counterbalanced each other overall. Prices for clothing and footwear...