SNB & CHF

Santa is generally a jolly fellow, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t take pleasure in meting our well-deserved punishment to the greedy. Nothing is more predictable than a stock market rally starting in early November and running into mid-January–Santa’s rally. And since it’s so predictable, why not front-run the rally by loading up on stocks in October? Here’s the problem: Santa doesn’t take kindly to punters front-running his rally. It’s like opening your presents...

© Ginasanders | Dreamstime.com The latest forecast for 2021 shows a deficit of CHF 14.8 billion, down CHF 2.6 billion from an earlier forecast shortfall of CHF 17.4 billion. The deficit is driven mainly by the extraordinary cost of responding to the Covid-19 pandemic. The federal government expects to spend CHF 4.1 billion on vaccines (1.2) and tests (2.5) in 2021. However, the largest share of extra spending is on full and partial unemployment benefits (6.9)....

There is a goods shortage on the store shelf, yes. But that does not mean there is a goods shortage - instead it is a warehousing and logistics problem. In fact, we may be facing a surplus of goods that's about to wash over the economy. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Alegro" by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- What *Seems* Inflation Now Is...

The climate strike wave that Greta Thunberg started also swept through Switzerland. While young people from all over the country participate in Fridays for Future events, dozens of start-ups are developing technologies to combat climate change. Part two of our explainer video looks into how the country goes about reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the green parties promising climate action made historic gains. A broader climate movement has sparked...

In landlocked Switzerland temperatures are rising faster than in regions that benefit from the ocean's cooling effect. The first explainer video of our two-part series shows how climate change is affecting the Swiss landscape, the economy and its people. While global average temperatures are 0.85 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, Switzerland has seen an increase of two degrees over the same period. Since 1850, its glaciers have lost 60% of their volume. The country risks losing...

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings. But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse. Low Inflation, Crashes and Central Bank Money Printing The crisis caused by the Covid19 virus,is a typical crisis with low inflation (at least for now). During such a crisis, central bank money...

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary commitment. I never set out nor imagined that a quarter century after embarking on what I thought would be a career managing portfolios, researching markets, and picking investments, I’d instead have to spend a good amount of my time in the future taking apart how raw economic data is collected, tabulated, and then disseminated. Yet here we are. I’m not saying, nor have I ever alleged, the government is cheating, cooking the...

Sixty percent equities, 40 percent bonds. What has been considered the golden rule of portfolio theory for decades is of less and less value to investors today. Because central banks have backstopped almost every market, essentially mimicking the market maker of last and first resort, returns have been low, correlations have increased, and valuations are deprived of their meaning. To act as the ultimate market maker as such, central banks have been leveraging up...

© Simona Pilolla | Dreamstime.com Recently published figures show the largest fall in male life expectancy in Switzerland since 1944 and the largest since 1962 for women. In 2020, a year marked by Covid-19, life expectancy at birth fell to 81.0 for men and 85.1 for women, a decline of 0.9 and 0.5 years respectively compared with 2019. Such a decline had not been observed since 1944 among men and 1962 among women, according to mortality tables calculated by...

The US Treasury bond market has been correctly anticipating inflation, disinflation, deflation as well as transitory, non-money-related increases in consumer prices for decades. Decades. Maybe we should listen to them? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Lepiten Falls" by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Do Bonds Accurately Price Inflation?...