SNB & CHF

So Far a Normal Correction In last week’s update on the gold sector, we mentioned that there was a lot of negative sentiment detectable on an anecdotal basis. From a positioning perspective only the commitments of traders still appeared a bit stretched though, while from a technical perspective we felt that a pullback to the 200-day moving average in both gold and gold stocks shouldn’t be regarded as anything but a...

United States Of the forces driving prices in the week ahead, events appear more important than economic reports. There are four such events that investors must navigate. The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank meet.  The UK High Court will deliver its ruling on the role of Parliament in Brexit.  The rating agency DBRS updates its credit rating for Portugal. The Bank of Canada is not going to change interest...

While subtle, the general public loss of faith in central banking has been obvious to anyone who has simply kept their eyes open: it started in Japan where in February hardware stores were reported that consumers were hoarding cash, as confirmed by the spike in demand for safes, “a place where the interest rate on cash is always zero, no matter what the central bank does.” Then, as we reported just over a week ago,...

Summary Fitch upgraded Taiwan by a notch. Thailand has a new king. South Africa’s Finance Minister Gordhan has been summoned to appear in court to face charges. Brazil’s Congress voted to approve a constitutional amendment to freeze government spending in real terms for at least the next 10 years. Brazil’s Petrobras cut fuel prices and introduced a new pricing mechanism. Stock Markets In the EM equity space...

One year ago, when it was still widely accepted conventional wisdom that NIRP would “work” to draw out money from savers who are loathe to collect nothing (or in some cases negative interest) from keeping their deposits at the bank, and would proceed to spend their savings, either boosting the stock market or the economy, we showed research from Bank of America demonstrating that far from promoting dis-saving, those...

Lurid Media Coverage In recent months, more and more of our clients and friends from overseas are asking us whether it is safe to travel to Europe. These fears are understandable, given the media coverage of the tragic events that occurred this year. The press painted a sinister and truly graphic picture of Europe as a war zone, as a target of global terrorism. The attacks in Brussels, the horrors we saw in Nice on...

With the strong ISM non-manufacturing PMI last week, long positions on the dollar are increasing, while speculators increase their euro and Swiss Franc shorts. CHF net shorts increased to 9.4 K positions. That the euro has depreciated against CHF, is possibly caused by real, non-speculative money into CHF, i.e. money in the form of cash and stock purchases. We will get more information tomorrow when the SNB sight...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index had once again a bad stance against the dollar index. The CHF index was down 1%. The dollar index, however, improved. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, October 15 2016(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ). - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency...

Over the next two years, the municipality of Dübendorf, in canton Zurich, will be testing a hydrogen powered street cleaning vehicle. The trial is intended to show the viability of hydrogen power for everyday use. (SRF, swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe...

Since the stock, bond and real estate markets are all correlated, it’s a question with no easy answer. The Everything Bubble Everyone who’s not paid to be in denial knows stocks, bonds and real estate are in bubbles of one sort or another. The Housing Bubble Real estate is either an echo bubble or a bubble that exceeds the previous bubble, depending on how attractive the market is to hot-money investors. S&P /...