SNB & CHF

Fools and Rascals And it’s time, time, time And it’s time, time, time It’s time, time, time that you love And it’s time, time, time… – Tom  Waits [embedded content] Tom Waits rasps about time POITOU, FRANCE – “So how much did you make last night?” “We made about $15,000,” came the reply from our eldest son, a keen cryptocurrency investor. “Bitcoin briefly pierced the $3,500 mark – an all-time high. The market cap of...

In the second quarter of the year, one in which unlike in Q1 fund flows showed a persistent and perplexing outflow from US stocks and into European and Emerging Markets, a trading desk rumor emerged that even as institutional traders dumped stocks and retail investors piled into ETFs, a “mystery” central bank was quietly bidding up risk assets by aggressively buying stocks. And no, it was not the BOJ: the Japanese...

The unions say Swiss employees have had to make do with only modest salary increases or wage freezes in recent years. (Keystone) Staff should start enjoying the benefits of Switzerland’s improving economic performance, says the country’s second-largest trade union group, Travail. Suisse, which is demanding a 2% salary increase for workers. “It’s been some time since the economic perspectives have looked this positive....

Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (DeStatis) reported today disappointing figures for Industrial Production. The seasonally-adjusted series fell in June 2017 month-over-month for the first time this year, last declining in December 2016. The index had been on a tear, rising nearly 5% in the first five months of this year. The move was considered by many if not most in the mainstream a prime example of Mario Draghi’s...

Late 2014/early 2015 will perhaps be the closest to a real recovery from the Great “Recession” we shall see in this cycle.  Q1 2015 marked the peak year over year growth rate of GDP in this recovery at 3.76%. That rate compares quite unfavorably with even the feeble post dot com crash recovery high of 4.41% in Q1 2004. It doesn’t even come close to the routine 4-5% year over year growth rates we saw in the late 90s....

Swiss Franc The euro has depreciated by 0.13%  to 1.1312CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The net impact is to lift the US dollar, yen and gold. The geopolitical tensions saw more profit-taking in equities. Debt markets are little changed, but the US Treasuries area a little firmer. We suspect that like yesterday, North...

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday’s sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained...

Asian tourists helped offset a stagnant European demand (Keystone) The number of overnight stays in Swiss hotels rose by 4.4% in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period the year before. Tourists from India and China were largely responsible for the increase in demand. According to figures released by Federal Statistical Office on Monday, tourists – both domestic and international – spent a total of 17.6...

Addax Petroleum in Geneva will shed more than 170 jobs as a result of the closure of its offices by the end of the year (Keystone) Chinese-owned oil and gas extractor firm Addax Petroleum is shutting its offices in the Swiss city of Geneva as well as in Aberdeen, Scotland and Houston in the United States. The company on Monday confirmed a report by the Tribune de Genève newspaper, saying its parent firm Sinopec...

The mainstream media is about to be presented with another (small) gift. In its quest to discredit populism, the condition of inflation has become paramount for largely the right reasons (accidents do happen). In the context of the macro economy of 2017, inflation isn’t really about consumer prices except as a broad gauge of hidden monetary conditions. Therefore, if inflation behaves as it is supposed to after so many...