This not the first time that Václav Klaus’ astute observations and experience-based predictions turn out to be shockingly accurate years later, and I’m pretty confident it will not be the last. Even before the examples that follow and that he clearly laid out in his address at the Marmara Forum, the former President of the Czech Republic has repeatedly proven to be quite prophetic in his assessment of the future. 

From his critique and his warnings about the many vulnerabilities of our current monetary system and to his fierce opposition against central planning and State overreach, to the Covid crisis and the way it was handled by most nations, it is by now clear that his is one of the very few voices that truly stand out from the noise. For years, he’s

This not the first time that Václav Klaus’ astute observations and experience-based predictions turn out to be shockingly accurate years later, and I’m pretty confident it will not be the last. Even before the examples that follow and that he clearly laid out in his address at the Marmara Forum, the former President of the Czech Republic has repeatedly proven to be quite prophetic in his assessment of the future. 

From his critique and his warnings about the many vulnerabilities of our current monetary system and to his fierce opposition against central planning and State overreach, to the Covid crisis and the way it was handled by most nations, it is by now clear that his is one of the very few voices that truly stand out from the noise. For years, he’s been warning of the very

The great Ludwig von Mises first described the concept of a crack-up boom as part of the Austrian business cycle theory, based on real life events that to an unsuspecting bystander might have appeared unconnected, or perhaps even quite bizarre and counterintuitive. Indeed, such a bystander might think the same of today’s economy and would likely have trouble making sense of the picture painted by stock markets, by our monetary and fiscal policies and their inflationary impact and by metrics reflecting the financial state of the average household. 

They each tell a different story and it can be hard to discern which is the right one. In fact, they’re all right, in a way. As von Mises aptly observed, it’s not different stories we’re seeing at all; it’s all

The great Ludwig von Mises first described the concept of a crack-up boom as part of the Austrian business cycle theory, based on real life events that to an unsuspecting bystander might have appeared unconnected, or perhaps even quite bizarre and counterintuitive. Indeed, such a bystander might think the same of today’s economy and would likely have trouble making sense of the picture painted by stock markets, by our monetary and fiscal policies and their inflationary impact and by metrics reflecting the financial state of the average household. 

They each tell a different story and it can be hard to discern which is the right one. In fact, they’re all right, in a way. As von Mises aptly observed, it’s not different stories we’re seeing at all; it’s all the same story but from

After months of consumer price increases and after countless working households found themselves in dire financial straits struggling to make ends meet, in the late May, President Biden finally revealed his grand plan to fight inflation in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal. The much-anticipated response to the cost of living crisis that has been ravaging the nation sadly did not contain the silver bullet that so many Americans were hoping for. Instead, it consisted of obvious observations and a recipe for “business as usual”.

Not to get mired in too much detail, the plan essentially was threefold: letting the Fed do what it’s already doing, interfering with the free market even more to force prices down in things like housing and prescription drugs and reducing the federal

After months of consumer price increases and after countless working households found themselves in dire financial straits struggling to make ends meet, in the late May, President Biden finally revealed his grand plan to fight inflation in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal. The much-anticipated response to the cost of living crisis that has been ravaging the nation sadly did not contain the silver bullet that so many Americans were hoping for. Instead, it consisted of obvious observations and a recipe for “business as usual”.

Not to get mired in too much detail, the plan essentially was threefold: letting the Fed do what it’s already doing, interfering with the free market even more to force prices down in things like housing and prescription drugs and

Interview with Bob Moriarty

As I mentioned many times before, trying to accurately forecast economic events or to “time the market” is a fool’s errand. To the chagrin of all central planners, mainstream analysts and all kinds of “experts”, the economy is a vastly complex, living organism, with too many parameters and too many moving parts to make it predictable or tamable. 

That being said, understanding monetary and geopolitical history certainly helps spot larger patterns and cycles. That’s because even though history doesn’t repeat itself, it certainly does rhyme. This is especially true now. A lot of what we witnessed over the last two years was indeed unprecedented, but the patterns we saw unfold were not. Panicked reactions by central planners doing more harm than good,

Interview with Bernd Rodler – Part II of II

Claudio Grass (CG): A lot people still consider it safer to go with a huge, established corporation, thinking these solutions would be more reliable and robust, especially for business applications. What is your take on this view?

Bernd Rodler (BR): This is a perfectly understandable view, at least from the standpoint of a manager applying the „cover your a…“ strategy. Who can blame him if the SAP project fails? Well, they are the market leader. So it can not be his fault. 

On the other hand, I have been in the IT business for more than 20 years now and during that time, many large, even world leading corporations like Enron, WorldCom and Yahoo collapsed or merged or fell apart. And I don‘t want to even think about all the products

Interview with Bernd Rodler – Part I of II

Those who know me and who have read my writings before will be very well aware of how important the topic of decentralization is to me and to my way of looking at the world, at our societies and our economies. I truly believe that there is no future to be had, at least not one that respects human dignity, should we continue down this same path of top-down control, mindless conformity and blind obedience to technocrats, bureaucrats and career politicians. Free competition, of goods and of ideas, free speech and free choices are the way forward. 

While a lot of people might agree with these principles in theory, only a few are prepared to and capable of making inroads in that direction in practice. This is why I was so happy to have the

Part II of II

The big picture here is clear and it is essential to understand that it represents a very significant paradigm shift. Whether it is online or offline, whether it is through a mobile app, an exchange or even through physical contracts, ownership titles to gold holdings keep changing hands. And thus, no matter the vehicle that is used to facilitate these transactions, the fact of the matter is that it acts as a gold-backed currency. This alone is remarkable: After eons of having to put up with fiat money, with all our other choices effectively and forcefully removed by decree, an increasing number of people is now once again reclaiming their right to execute voluntary trades with their peers, using what they understand to be real money. 

What’s even more striking

Part II of II

The big picture here is clear and it is essential to understand that it represents a very significant paradigm shift. Whether it is online or offline, whether it is through a mobile app, an exchange or even through physical contracts, ownership titles to gold holdings keep changing hands. And thus, no matter the vehicle that is used to facilitate these transactions, the fact of the matter is that it acts as a gold-backed currency. This alone is remarkable: After eons of having to put up with fiat money, with all our other choices effectively and forcefully removed by decree, an increasing number of people is now once again reclaiming their right to execute voluntary trades with their peers, using what they understand to be real money.

Part I of II

For decades, physical gold investors have had to contend with superficial, naive and wholly ahistorical “arguments” from the mainstream financial press, from economists and experts of all stripes, claiming that gold is nothing but a barbarous relic. To them, the yellow metal is akin to investment superstition. It has no yield, it serves no practical purpose and the only attraction they could conceive of is merely symbolic, or perhaps, political. Thus, who in their right mind would “imprison” their perfectly good and functional fiat money in a gold bar, and then just let it gather dust in a vault for a decade or two? Well, it might have taken a little longer than many of us expected, but now we have an answer that even the most ignorant and

Part I of II

For decades, physical gold investors have had to contend with superficial, naive and wholly ahistorical “arguments” from the mainstream financial press, from economists and experts of all stripes, claiming that gold is nothing but a barbarous relic. To them, the yellow metal is akin to investment superstition. It has no yield, it serves no practical purpose and the only attraction they could conceive of is merely symbolic, or perhaps, political. Thus, who in their right mind would “imprison” their perfectly good and functional fiat money in a gold bar, and then just let it gather dust in a vault for a decade or two? Well, it might have taken a little longer than many of us expected, but now we have an answer that even the most ignorant and unread of mainstream gamblers

Over the last two years, we’ve all witnessed state abuses of power and extreme overreaches the likes of which many average citizens had never imagined they’d see in their own lifetimes. This caused a great part of the body politic in many Western nations to revisit their previously held beliefs about what is and isn’t possible for their governments to do and to question whether there really is such a thing as going “too far” or whether anyone in the political class is subject to the same rules as them. 

For the majority, this was a lesson learned the hard way and a very surprising one at that. But even for those of us who understand the lessons of history and who never harbored any delusions about the nature of the State and the character of anyone who

Over the last two years, we’ve all witnessed state abuses of power and extreme overreaches the likes of which many average citizens had never imagined they’d see in their own lifetimes. This caused a great part of the body politic in many Western nations to revisit their previously held beliefs about what is and isn’t possible for their governments to do and to question whether there really is such a thing as going “too far” or whether anyone in the political class is subject to the same rules as them. 

For the majority, this was a lesson learned the hard way and a very surprising one at that. But even for those of us who understand the lessons of history and who never harbored any delusions about the nature of the State and the character of anyone who claims to know what’s best

It is undeniable that the ongoing crisis in Ukraine has polarized Western societies to an extent unseen in decades in any other foreign conflict. For over a month, we have been bombarded unceasingly by all mainstream media sources with reports and stories about Russia’s invasion and this conflict has already created deep social rifts in many other nations, and EU members in particular. No matter where one stands on this topic and no matter how passionate one might feel about it, I believe we can all agree that Western media has been far from unbiased in reporting relevant developments from the front. Neither has Russia state media naturally, as we might have expected, especially in the context of an ongoing conflict. 

This considerable “gap” between the two versions of reality

It is undeniable that the ongoing crisis in Ukraine has polarized Western societies to an extent unseen in decades in any other foreign conflict. For over a month, we have been bombarded unceasingly by all mainstream media sources with reports and stories about Russia’s invasion and this conflict has already created deep social rifts in many other nations, and EU members in particular. No matter where one stands on this topic and no matter how passionate one might feel about it, I believe we can all agree that Western media has been far from unbiased in reporting relevant developments from the front. Neither has Russia state media naturally, as we might have expected, especially in the context of an ongoing conflict.
This considerable “gap” between the two

Every time we hear government officials announce their big spending plans, their new welfare programs and their ambitious “job creating” schemes, they always present them as being in defense of the poorest and the most marginalized members of our societies. In coordination with their central bankers, they print and spend new money at will, claiming that it is all for the benefit of the weakest among us and that all the freshly created funds will support them without further burdening the taxpayer. According to them, this is the best way to prosperity and its a simple one, really: if we want to help those that don’t have enough money, why don’t we just print some and give it to them?

While the fallacy in this line of “reasoning” might be obvious even to a

Every time we hear government officials announce their big spending plans, their new welfare programs and their ambitious “job creating” schemes, they always present them as being in defense of the poorest and the most marginalized members of our societies. In coordination with their central bankers, they print and spend new money at will, claiming that it is all for the benefit of the weakest among us and that all the freshly created funds will support them without further burdening the taxpayer. According to them, this is the best way to prosperity and its a simple one, really: if we want to help those that don’t have enough money, why don’t we just print some and give it to them?

While the fallacy in this line of “reasoning” might be obvious even to a child, it still escapes

I realize that I shouldn’t be surprised at the way the crisis in Ukraine has divided our societies or at the blind fanaticism the conversations around it have provoked. After all, virtually every other development of consequence has tuned out exactly the same. From covid to the economy and from freedom of speech to science itself, rational, respectful and productive debates are nowhere to be found. Dogma, propaganda, and zealotry have prevailed, with the unrelenting help of the mainstream media and online platforms. Citizens are turned against each other and there is no common ground for any adult conversation to take place on. 

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is no different. Both sides, Russia and the West, have developed their own narratives, arguably equally divorced from

I realize that I shouldn’t be surprised at the way the crisis in Ukraine has divided our societies or at the blind fanaticism the conversations around it have provoked. After all, virtually every other development of consequence has tuned out exactly the same. From covid to the economy and from freedom of speech to science itself, rational, respectful and productive debates are nowhere to be found. Dogma, propaganda, and zealotry have prevailed, with the unrelenting help of the mainstream media and online platforms. Citizens are turned against each other and there is no common ground for any adult conversation to take place on.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is no different. Both sides, Russia and the West, have developed their own narratives, arguably equally

Over the last couple of years we witnessed quite an extraordinary ride in gold prices. An impressive ascent until the last quarter of 2020 was followed by a pullback that scared many speculators away, which in turn transformed into a period of strength and then came another ebb… And recently, once again, we saw the yellow metal shoot up, fueled by inflation fears and the situation in Ukraine. Given that the fundamentals remain unchanged and that the only way is up for gold, another short-lived consolidation is to be expected, before a much bigger leg up, and on and on it goes. For those focusing on the short-term price moves, trying to make a buck off a 2% fluctuation from today to tomorrow, I’m sure these patterns are fascinating. But for those of us who

Over the last couple of years we witnessed quite an extraordinary ride in gold prices. An impressive ascent until the last quarter of 2020 was followed by a pullback that scared many speculators away, which in turn transformed into a period of strength and then came another ebb… And recently, once again, we saw the yellow metal shoot up, fueled by inflation fears and the situation in Ukraine. Given that the fundamentals remain unchanged and that the only way is up for gold, another short-lived consolidation is to be expected, before a much bigger leg up, and on and on it goes. For those focusing on the short-term price moves, trying to make a buck off a 2% fluctuation from today to tomorrow, I’m sure these patterns are fascinating. But for those of us who have a time horizon that

One quick glance at different news headlines or just 5’ switching between TV networks suffice to convince even the most naive news consumer that there is something seriously wrong with the way public discourse was (d)evolved in our societies over the last years. Of course, journalism was never entirely devoid of bias, not even in its “golden age”. Reporters and editors are merely human after all and their own views, beliefs, hopes and opinions have always tainted the products of their work, consciously or not. However, this kind of bias is a million miles away from what we’ve been experiencing over the last decade and especially after the ascent of social media and the online dissemination of the news.
Today, we’re not just seeing slightly skewed reports and

One quick glance at different news headlines or just 5’ switching between TV networks suffice to convince even the most naive news consumer that there is something seriously wrong with the way public discourse was (d)evolved in our societies over the last years. Of course, journalism was never entirely devoid of bias, not even in its “golden age”. Reporters and editors are merely human after all and their own views, beliefs, hopes and opinions have always tainted the products of their work, consciously or not. However, this kind of bias is a million miles away from what we’ve been experiencing over the last decade and especially after the ascent of social media and the online dissemination of the news. 

Today, we’re not just seeing slightly skewed reports and partisan

Astrid Stuckelberger and Claudio Grass have been on my podcast before.

Both are from Switzerland, and both featured in the super documentary Planet Lockdown.

You can also see the video here: https://jermwarfare.com/blog/astrid-stuckelberger-claudio-grass (copy/past into browser). Feel free to share!

Astrid Stuckelberger and Claudio Grass have been on my podcast before.
Both are from Switzerland, and both featured in the super documentary Planet Lockdown.
You can also see the video here: https://jermwarfare.com/blog/astrid-stuckelberger-claudio-grass (copy/past into browser). Feel free to share!
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Dave Lukas of Misfit Entrepreneur invites Stephen Flood, CEO of GoldCore, to the show. Dave and Stephen talk about what people should know before investing in gold and silver, the present state of inflation, central banking, and the monetary system.
Further, he explains why gold is still your safe-haven asset

It is a regrettable fact, but a fact nonetheless, that too many students of economic and monetary history have no idea where the principles and theories they espouse really came from. So many important thinkers, with unconventional and truly inquisitive minds, have been shut out of mainstream textbooks and were robbed of the prominent place they deserved in all our memories to make room for those with more expedient ideas. 

One such man is Gordon Tullock, an economist and law professor, whose groundbreaking work on Public Choice Theory forever changed the way we think about the interaction between economics and political science. During his professional career spanning 65 years, he developed concepts and ideas we still rely on today, like rent seeking, and made invaluable

Interview with Simon Hunt: Part II of II

Claudio Grass (CG): Taken together, the moves by Russia and China, especially on the monetary front, with their plans of a gold-backed digital currency, appear to pose a direct challenge to the status quo and America’s central role in it. Do you think we might be witnessing a tectonic shift already, and do you expect to see the US and the USD decline in influence and relevance?

Simon Hunt (SH): As I shift through your questions, none can be answered in just a few lines so I am doing my best to summarize the key points as concisely as possible. This question especially deserves a full report, but I will do my best to confine my answer to a few paragraphs. 

 There are three interlocking themes for both China and Russia: 

To distance

Interview with Simon Hunt Part I of II

As my friends and clients know very well, but also anyone who has read any of my writings before, I always held that understanding history and geopolitics is one of the most important elements of sound investing. Most mainstream investors, “experts”, as well as the financial press tend to ignore these forces, as does the public at large, of course. “Who cares what happened decades ago in some faraway land? I just need someone from Wall Street to tell me if I should buy Netflix today ” – that’s the attitude. And this is why they are so often surprised when an escalation finally comes about and actually impacts them directly, and not just in terms of their portfolio.

But even for students of history and keen observers of current geopolitical