Tag Archives: USD

Sterling reached a new 11-month high against the dollar earlier today, but the dovish take away from the Bank of England has seen sterling reverse lower. It has now fallen below the previous day’s low, and a close below there (~$1.3190) would confirm the bearish key reversal pattern. Support near the week’s low just below $1.3100 is holding, and if that goes, the $1.30 level can be tested. A break of $1.2930, the low...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.1475 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are some chunky option strikes that could come into play today. There are 920 mln euros struck at $1.1850 that expire today. There are A$523 mln struck at $0.7950 expiring today. There are $680 mln struck at CAD1.2550 that will be...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.1496 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The high-flying dollar-bloc currencies may be a preliminary sign market change. The US dollar is gaining on the Canadian dollar for the fourth consecutive session.  It is probing resistance we identified in the $1.2620 area.  The US...

I had the privilege to be at Bloomberg today and discussed with Vonnie Quin and Mark Barton. A clip to the Cool Video can be found here. There were three talking points. First was the observation that while the President took credit for the record stock market, the strength of the economy, the low unemployment rate, and business confidence, there was no mention of the dollar, which poised to close lower for its seventh...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.68% to 1.472CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Trends The euro’s strength is surely partly a reflection of US dollar weakness, but it is also a reflection of the improved sentiment among investors. The initial dollar losses at the start of the year was largely a correction that is common after...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.41% to 1.14 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates After taking a step lower in the North American session yesterday, the dollar is consolidating today. The euro is holding above $1.18, and the dollar held JPY110.00. Global equities are mostly higher, while bonds are mixed. Asia-Pacific...

Swiss Franc The euro is up by 0.15% to 1.1385 CHF EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying a respite from the recent selling, but its gains have been shallow, and will likely prove brief. The upticks have been concentrated in the recently high-flying dollar-bloc currencies, and sterling. The tone appears to be...

Summary: For the US jobs data to rally the dollar, it needs to increase the likelihood of a Fed hike in September, a high bar. The BOE will stand pat, a 6-2 vote would likely be accompanied by a hawkish inflation report. The RBA will also hold rates steady, and of course, it would prefer a weaker currency. The tide of sentiment has turned against the dollar. The enthusiasm seen in the second part of last year,...

Summary: Fundamental driver, divergence is still intact. The dollar’s losses have barely met the minimum retracements of a bull market. Sentiment may be exaggerating the positive developments in Europe and the negative developments in the US. The US dollar is sitting near multi-month lows against the major European currencies and the dollar bloc. Where does this leave our strategic view of the third...

Summary: Little new in FOMC statement. Seems consistent with a Sept announcement to begin reducing the balance sheet in Oct. USD sold off as if reflecting sentiment held in bay until the statement was out of the way. The FOMC statement reads very much like the June statement. There were some minor tweaks in the first paragraph that discusses the broad economic performance since the last FOMC statement. There...