Tag Archives: US

Summary Home ownership varies throughout the EU but is overall near US levels. Germany has the lowest home ownership, and Spain has the most.  Italy has the least amount of mortgages. US include owner equivalent rents in CPI, the EU does not. This Great Graphic was in the Financial Times recently. It shows home ownership rates several EU countries.  The useful chart also shows those who own (red bar) and those...

Summary Yellen has identified two challenges regarding the US labor market, the opioid epidemic and women participation in the labor force. The topic of the Jackson Hole gathering lends itself more to a discussion of these issues than the nuances of monetary policy. Dynamic world growth needs a dynamic US economy, and that requires more serious thinking about these socio-economic and political issues. The topic at...

The Fed's new forecasts show a third rate hike in 2017 for the second half of the year and three more in 2018. As expected, the US Federal Reserve raised the target range for the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 percent – 1.25 percent. It also updated its policy normalization principles with...

Summary: Provided Le Pen and Macron or Fillion make to the second round, the market response to the French election results may be short lived. BOJ, Riksbank and ECB meetings. Spending authorization and some announcement from the White House on tax policy are in focus as Trump’s 100th day in office approaches. The results of the French presidential election will be known prior to the open of the Asian...

Summary: Monetary policy is off the table for at least the next two months. Several fiscal issues are coming to a head. Despite the GOP majority in Congress and White House, brinkmanship cannot be ruled out. The Federal Reserve hiked rates in March.  Whatever gradual hikes mean, it seems to preclude moves in back-to-back meetings.  There are two chances of a May hike:  Slim and none and Slim left town. June...

Summary: China’s trade concessions seem modest, but little discussion of US concessions. Reports suggest Trump is set to sign a new executive order to investigate trade practices in steel, aluminum, and maybe household appliances. Trade imbalances and floating currencies are not mutually exclusive. Last week’s meeting between the US and China’s Presidents did not produce much fireworks or headlines. The...

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year.  The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical.  The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it...

The US Federal Reserve raised the policy rate by 25 basis points in mid-March, but left its outlook largely unchanged. We continue to expect two more rate hikes in 2017. After hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials in recent weeks, the 25 basis point hike in the target range for the...

Summary: China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China’s portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others’ intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month. The market’s immediate focus is on today’s FOMC meeting and Dutch elections.  However, China’s annual legislative session (National People’s Congress) ended...

Summary The 94 mln people POTUS claims are not working is true but terribly misleading. What happened to agriculture a century ago is happening to manufacturing. New industries are less labor intensive than smokestack industries. In a speech to the joint session of Congress that was widely recognized as “presidential,” US President Trump said twice that there are 94 mln Americans out of the labor market.  It is...