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Tag Archives: US

Heightened Speculation of a BOJ Move Tomorrow did not Stop the Nikkei from Rallying or Yen from Slipping

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a mostly softer bias against the G10 currencies. The notable exceptions are the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Ironically, speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike appears to have increased, while there is a risk that the Swiss National Bank cuts rates this week. The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the major currencies. The central bank meets later this week but is widely expected to stand pat. The continued rise in oil...

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Euro’s Recovery to $1.09 Looks Vulnerable while Yen Falls to New Lows for the Week After Strong Pay Raises Confirmed

Overview: At the end of last week, the derivatives market was again pricing in nearly four Fed cuts this year, but this week's data have seen expectations re-converge with the Fed's three rate cuts signaled in December, while cutting the odds of June hike to the lowest in the more than four months. This has helped lift the dollar against all the G10 currencies this week. As is often the case in a firm US dollar environment, the Canadian dollar has fared the best,...

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Ueda’s Comments Weigh on Yen as the Market Awaits US CPI

Overview: The US CPI has become one of the most important high-frequency economic reports for the capital markets. The dollar is going into the report narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda about the weakness in consumption of non-durable goods was seen by some as reducing the likelihood of a change in policy next week. The greenback is threatening to snap a five-day drop against the yen. Most of the G10 currencies are in narrow...

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Japan’s Q4 23 Contraction Revised Away, Helping Keep Yen Bid

Overview: News that the Japanese economy expanded rather than contracted in Q4 23 has fanned expectations that rates could be as early as next week. This is helping keep the yen supported, though it remains in the pre-weekend range, albeit barely. While the dollar is softer but consolidating against the euro, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar, it slightly firmer against the Antipodeans and Scandis. Sterling is also in a narrow range, but with a softer bias. Most...

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Narrowly Mixed Dollar to Start the Big Week for Europe and North America

Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies to begin the week that features a Bank of Canada and ECB meetings, US jobs data, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, and US President Biden's State of the Union address. Most emerging market currencies are firmer. The Turkish lira is a notable exception. Higher than expected took a toll, knocking it down by around 0.5%. On the other hand, the Malaysian ringgit is up...

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Ueda’s Comments Knock the Yen Back, while the Euro Flirts with $1.08

Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Scandis are enjoying a slightly firmer tone, while the euro and sterling are edging higher in European turnover. The Swiss franc is softer, and the yen has given back most of yesterday's gains after BOJ Governor Ueda acknowledged that central bank seeks further confirmation that sustainable price goal is within reach. We see it as a further signal of an April move on rates rather than this...

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Weak US Durable Goods may Herald Pullback in Capex

Overview: Most of the G10 currencies are trading quietly in narrow ranges today. After a slightly firmer than expected national CPI reading, which still moderated, and a pullback in US yields, the Japanese yen is the strongest of the major currencies. The dollar has pulled back from almost JPY151 to nearly JPY150. The New Zealand dollar is the weakest, off about 0.2% ahead of tomorrow's central bank meeting. After selling $127 bln of coupons yesterday, the US...

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Euro Bid in Europe but Unlikely to Sustain Gains Through North America

Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week mixed. The dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen are softer while the European currencies enjoy a firmer today. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies are trading with higher. The Turkish lira is the notable exception. It is the weakest currency today, off about 0.65%. The Chinese yuan is a little softer, but the dollar continues to be capped near CNY7.20. Last week, more often than not, the...

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While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America

Overview: Amid a light news stream, the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near JPY150.90. Emerging market currencies are mostly...

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Dollar Slips but Dip may Offer New Opportunity

Overview: The US dollar is offered today. It is trading softer against all the G10 currencies, with the yen the notable exception, and it is flat. The Antipodean are leading the way, taking out last week's highs, as has the euro. That said, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched as NY dealers return from the long holiday weekend. The Scandis are also trading above last week's highs. The yen, sterling, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are still inside last...

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