Tag Archives: US

Overview:  The dollar is mixed on what will start critical second half of the week. France holds its confidence vote in a few hours. Fed Chair speaks at a moderated discussion at the New York Times around 1:40 ET. The US data focus shifts to the labor market with the ADP estimate today and the nonfarm payroll report on Friday. The head of the main opposition party in Japan stepped down ostensibly until March due to a personal scandal and this has dampened...

Overview: The US dollar has extended the losses scored late yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he was still leaning toward a December rate cut. The odds of a rate cut rose to around 76% from about 66% at the end of last week. The odds are slightly lower today, around 72%. A solid jobs report on Friday and another uptick in CPI may change some minds. The only G10 currency that is weaker today is the Japanese yen, and it is off about 0.25%....

Overview: The US dollar is beginning the new week and month on a firm note. It is rising against all the G10 currencies and nearly all the emerging market currencies. US-President-elect Trump's threat to BRICS if they abandon the dollar is symbolic than substantive, as we have argued, despite the occasional claim to the contrary, a BRICS currency is not realistic, and the China has little interest in fostering another competitor to the yuan. Still, like being told...

Overview: The US dollar has a softer profile today. All the G10 currencies are higher, led by 1%+ surge in the yen amid heightened speculation of a rate hike next month, while the US 10-year yield is near 4.25% today, the lowest since the election. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand allows for another half-point cut after delivering the second one this year earlier today, the New Zealand dollar has popped up amid sell the rumor buy the fact type of activity....

Overview: The selection of Scott Bessent, the hedge fund manager as next US Treasury Secretary was greeted euphorically in the capital markets:  one of their own and, arguably, like many of new economics team could have been picked in any Republican administration. Risk appetites have been animated. Still, we suspect market positioning may have led to an exaggerated response. The dollar has been sold. Stocks have bought. The euro is leading the G10 currencies...

Overview:  Escalating tensions in Europe and comments from Bank of Japan Ueda that spurred speculation of a December hike are the main drivers of the foreign exchange market today. The yen is the strongest of the G10 currencies, up about 0.65%, while the euro is the weakest, off a little more than 0.25%, and sterling is down almost as much. Most of the other G10 currencies are little changed. Led by central European currencies, most emerging market currencies are...

Overview: US dollar and rates are firmer today. All the G10 currencies are lower, led by the Japanese yen. The UK reported firmer than expected CPI and this may have deflected some of the selling pressure away from sterling, which is off less than 0.2% to put it atop the pack ahead of the US open. Nearly all the emerging market currencies are lower led by central European currencies, the Mexican peso, and South African rand. As anticipated, China's prime lending...

Overview: Within hours of the US giving permission to Ukraine to use US weapons to strike Russian territory, which it did, Moscow announced a change it is nuclear doctrine that allow for the use of nuclear weapons against a conventionally armed adversary that is backed by nuclear powers. This follows on the heels of the failure of two telecom cables yesterday (Germany-Finland and Sweden-Lithuania). This escalation is roiling the capital markets. Bonds are rallying....

Overview: The US dollar has begun the new week consolidating in a mixed fashion against the G10 currencies. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda remains circumspect and did not provide guidance about next month's central bank meeting. Without positive guidance, the market sold the yen, but the swaps market shows about 13 bp of tightening has been discounted, up a couple of basis points from a week ago. Leave aside the New Zealand dollar, which is also under pressure ahead of...

Overview:  The dollar bounced, and US rates rose yesterday afternoon in response to comments by Fed Chair Powell. But he did little more that reiterate what he had said at the recent press conference. Powell expressed a lack of urgency to move after having led the central bank in delivering a 50 bp cut to start the easing in September while indicating that direction of travel will be to a less restrictive rate. The dollar has come back lower today against the G10...