Tag Archives: US

Overview: Talk from two Fed officials yesterday, which seemed to validate market expectations eased the upward pressure on the dollar and helped equities launch a dramatic recovery. The market is pricing in a terminal rate near 5.50%, a little higher than the median dot in December. The S&P 500 posted a dramatic recover and posted a potential bullish key reversal. Its 0.75% closing gain was the largest advance in nearly three weeks. A large drop in Tokyo's...

Overview: The jump in prices paid in yesterday's US ISM manufacturing coupled with the stronger eurozone inflation, with a new cyclical high reported in the core rate, underscores the market theme of higher-for-longer. This is seen as dollar supportive but also negative for risk-assets, including and especially equities. European benchmark 10-year yields are up another couple of basis points today and the 10-year US Treasury yield is pushing above 4% for the first...

Overview: Many investors may be skeptical of the accuracy of Chinese data, but its stronger than expected February PMI animated the animal spirits and bolstered risk-taking appetites. Asia Pacific equities jumped, led by the 4.2% rally in Hong Kong and a 5% surge in the index that tracks mainland shares. Among the long bourses Australia and Singapore slipped, and South Korean markets were closed for a national holiday. Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain and...

Overview:  Rising rates and falling stocks provided the backdrop for the foreign exchange market this week. The dollar appreciated against all the G10 currencies but the Swedish krona, which is still correcting higher after the hawkish pivot by the central bank. The market looks for a later and higher peak in the Fed funds rate. This coupled with the risk-off sentiment helped the dollar extend its recovery after falling since last September-October. The yen's...

Overview: The surge in US interest rates and sharp losses in US stocks sent the dollar broadly higher in North America yesterday. The $42 bln of two-year notes auctioned by the US Treasury saw the highest yield in more than a quarter-of-a-century (4.67%) and it still produced a small tail. Sterling, helped by its own surprisingly strong data, was the only G10 currency to have gained against the surging dollar. Still, no important technical levels were breached,...

Overview: Rising interest rates are weighing on risk appetites and the dollar is broadly stronger. Sterling is a notable exception after a stronger than expected flash PMI and better than expected public finances. The correlation between higher US rates and a weaker yen is increasing and the greenback looks poised to rechallenge the JPY135 area. A slightly better than expected preliminary PMI and hawkish minutes from the recent RBA meeting has done little to support...

Overview:  On the heels of a dramatic jump in US job creation and firmer than expected year-over-year CPI, the US reported a larger than expected jump in retail sales and a strong recovery in manufacturing output. Few think that economic momentum that the recent data implies can be repeated, the "no landing" camp has gained adherents. We suspect that says more about psychology than the economy. The US two-year note is threatening to snap a five-day 20 bp advance...

Overview: Although the US January CPI was in line with expectations, the year-over-year rate was a little firmer than expected. Still, the measure that Fed Chair Powell has underscored, core services, excluding shelter, moderated with a 0.3% month-over-month gain. US rates shot up and this lent the dollar support, while weighing on equities and risk sentiment. The US two-year note yield rose to almost 4.64% yesterday, the highest in three months. The greenback is...

Overview: The focus is on the US CPI report today, but the price action is anything but intuitive. Although the revisions of the basket and methodological changes reinforce expectations for the largest rise in three months, the US dollar continues to trade heavily after rallying last week. The dollar-bloc currencies are underperforming today. And US rates are softer. The US 2- and 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific rallied....

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies, with the notable exception, yen, Swiss franc, and sterling. The risk-on mood is seen in the foreign exchange market with the Antipodean and Scandi currencies leading the move against the greenback. The yen has fallen by about 1.3% this week, leading losers, while sterling's 1.1% gain puts it at the top. Despite the poor showing of US equities yesterday, risk appetites returned and most of the...