Tag Archives: US

Summary: For the first time since the financial crisis, the 5-year CDS on JGBs is dipping below the 5-year US CDS. It appears to be more a function of a decline in Japan’s CDS than a rise in the US CDS. We are reluctant to read too much into the small price changes in the mostly illiquid instruments.   This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg and depicts Japan and US 5-year credit default swap indicative...

(draft of monthly column for a Chinese paper) The cross-border movement of goods, services, and capital increased markedly for the thirty years up to the Great Financial Crisis.  Although the recovery has given way to a new economic expansion in the major economies, global trade and capital flows remain well below pre-crisis levels.  It had given rise to a sense globalization is ending. The election of Donald Trump as...

So far, there has been little clarity as to which specific trade policies the new president will introduce, but given how high trade ranks on his agenda, this will likely change quickly. But what actual powers does a US president have in the area of trade, and what measures might Mr. Trump implement?...

The incoming US president Donald Trump has often struck a belligerent tone with regard to trade relations. Much of his anti-trade narrative – made public in tweets and remarks made on the campaign trail – has focused on China, raising concerns over trade frictions, if not an outright trade war. Yet what powers does the US president have in the area of...

Summary: Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues. United States The major US equity indices reached record highs before the weekend even...

Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices.  Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like. However, political factors are more difficult for investors to integrate into their analysis. Therein lies the main challenge in the year ahead.  There will be many opportunities for political factors to overwhelm...

Summary: High-wage economies of Canada, EU, Japan and Australia account for nearly half of US corporate employment abroad. And even in low-wage regions, the high-wage parts tend to draw more US employment. The new US administration may have second thoughts about pivot to Asia, but US companies may not. US Flag Around the Earth --- Image by © Images.com/Corbis - Click to enlarge The US economy created roughly...

A new world order is coming of age and the transition is painful to accept for a Western middle class with a deep-seated sense of entitlement. We showed how the West feels threatened globally in Toward a New World Order and followed up explaining how this translate into domestic politics in Toward a New World Order Part II. We will now continue this series by showing how gross economic mismanagement have created the...

Summary: Obama Administration has taken a hardline against China’s trade practices. Other countries are also resisting China’s arguments that it is a market economy. Last week, US imposed anti-dumping duties on imported washing machines from China. As was the campaign and the initial appointments, the election of an unorthodox candidate promises to change the way things are done in Washington. However, just as...

In order for a society to be sustained social relations have to be reproduced. Yet now neither the middle class nor capital are able to reproduce themselves. This may be the single greatest challenge our society faces. David Leonhardt of the New York Times reminds us that the phrase “American Dream” was born during the Depression.  A popular book in 1931 that introduced the concept  defined it as “that dream of a land...