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Tag Archives: Swiss National Bank

How Derivatives Markets Responded to the De-Pegging of the Swiss Franc

In a Bank of England Financial Stability Paper, Olga Cielinska, Andreas Joseph, Ujwal Shreyas, John Tanner and Michalis Vasios analyze transactions on the Swiss Franc foreign exchange over-the-counter derivatives market around January 15, 2015, the day when the Swiss National Bank de-pegged the Swiss Franc. From the abstract: The removal of the floor led to extreme price moves in the forwards market, similar to those...

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How Derivatives Markets Responded to the De-Pegging of the Swiss Franc

In a Bank of England Financial Stability Paper, Olga Cielinska, Andreas Joseph, Ujwal Shreyas, John Tanner and Michalis Vasios analyze transactions on the Swiss Franc foreign exchange over-the-counter derivatives market around January 15, 2015, the day when the Swiss National Bank de-pegged the Swiss Franc. From the abstract: The removal of the floor led to extreme price moves in the forwards market, similar to those observed in the spot market, while trading in the Swiss franc options...

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Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets

We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble...

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Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets

By EconMatters We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks extreme monetary...

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A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after...

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“Kosten eines Vollgeld-Systems sind hoch (Costly Sovereign Money),” Die Volkswirtschaft, 2016

Kosten eines Vollgeld-Systems sind hoch Eine Umsetzung der Vollgeld-Initiative würde grossen Schaden anrichten und dürfte im Ergebnis selbst die Initianten enttäuschen. Verbesserungen verspricht dagegen eine «sanfte» Reform: die Einführung von elektronischem SNB-Geld für alle. Der Präsident des Vereins Monetäre Modernisierung Hansruedi Weber (Mitte) und zwei verkleidete Aktivisten reichen im Dezember 2015 bei der...

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Kosten eines Vollgeld-Systems sind hoch (Costly Sovereign Money)

Kosten eines Vollgeld-Systems sind hoch Eine Umsetzung der Vollgeld-Initiative würde grossen Schaden anrichten und dürfte im Ergebnis selbst die Initianten enttäuschen. Verbesserungen verspricht dagegen eine «sanfte» Reform: die Einführung von elektronischem SNB-Geld für alle. Der Präsident des Vereins Monetäre Modernisierung Hansruedi Weber (Mitte) und zwei verkleidete Aktivisten reichen im Dezember 2015 bei der...

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Swiss National Bank further strengthens provisions for currency reserves

The Swiss National Bank uses a strange formula on the basis of economic growth for the provisions for FX losses. It would be much easier to connect this number to the size of the balance sheet, for example 10% of the balance sheet. The risks of losses are particularly high, because FX rates are very volatile and nearly all SNB investments are in foreign currency. From the press release: Allocation of CHF 4.6 billion...

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Sind die SNB-Negativzinsen expansiv oder eher restriktiv?

Vor dem Hintergrund eines angeblich „schwachen Wirtschaftswachstums“ rechtfertigte SNB-Chef Thomas Jordan neulich in einem Interview in der Tagespresse die SNB-Negativzinsen und bezeichnete diese als „expansiv“. Nur: Sind Negativzinsen wirklich „expansiv“? Sind diese nicht viel eher „restriktiv“ und bremsen unsere Wirtschaft – bewirken also genau das Gegenteil von dem, was die SNB behauptet? Einmal mehr plaudert unsere...

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