Tag Archives: Politics

Over the past few weeks, the markets have come to accept the likelihood of a December Fed hike. US interest rates have adjusted. The pricing of December Fed funds futures contract is consistent with around an 80% chance of a hike. The two-year yield is trading at the upper end of what is expected to be the Fed funds target range at the end of the year, after slipping below the current range a month ago. The Dollar Index...

The incoming economic data hasn’t changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the status quo that permeates the national debate. The housing bubble...

Interior Minister Alain Berset was more successful at convincing Swiss abroad of his reforms than those at home (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Unlike their compatriots in Switzerland, Swiss voters who live abroad came out massively in favour of a wide-ranging overhaul of Switzerland’s old-age pension scheme. Eleven of Switzerland’s 26 cantons count the votes of Swiss expats separately. An analysis of Sunday’s...

Authored by Robert Parry via ConsortiumNews.com, Crossing a line from recklessness into madness, The New York Times published a front-page opus suggesting that Russia was behind social media criticism of Hillary Clinton... For those of us who have taught journalism or worked as editors, a sign that an article is the product of sloppy or dishonest journalism is that a key point will be declared as flat fact when it is unproven or a point in serious dispute – and it then becomes the...

Summary: The dollar has been declining since the start of the year, but the causes have changed. The drag from US politics may be exaggerated, while European and Japanese politics are worrisome. The economic data may continue to be a drag on US yields, especially if core CPI slips again. The US dollar’s sell-off accelerated. It has been selling off since the start of the year. The first phase of the decline at...

The economic reports released since the last update were slightly more upbeat than the previous period. The economic surprises have largely been on the positive side but there were some major disappointments as well. The economy has been doing this for several years now, one part of the economy waxing while another wanes and the overall trajectory not much changed. Indeed, the broad Chicago Fed National Activity index...

Summary: EMU preliminary August CPI headline rise may not translate into core. US jobs growth is fine; earnings growth is key. Trump’s coalition is fraying, and the weekend pardon will not help mend fences. The US dollar’s consolidation ended with an exclamation point last week.  The downtrend since the beginning of the year is resuming, and there is a reasonable risk that the pace accelerates. In addition to...

Why are profit margins persistently high? With decent earnings this quarter, corporate profits as a % of GDP will approach (maybe exceed) 10% again. That is abnormally high compared to the period 1960 to 2000. Margins actually started to rise in the mid-80s but really accelerated after 2000 and outside of the 2008 crisis have remained high. Why? What changed in 2000 to elevate corporate profits so much? Is this just...

Nicolas Maduro (blue shirt) at the tomb of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro in Santiago on August 15 (Keystone) Swiss firms have been cutting hundreds of jobs in long-established branch offices in Venezuela, as the oil-producing country experiences an economic and political crisis. “The disaster – economic, social, political and humanitarian – which is engulfing Venezuela with the government of [president] Nicolas...

The Swiss cabinet has approved an amended billing system for medical treatments aimed at creating more transparency and limiting a further increase in healthcare costs. The decision is expected to lead to annual savings of CHF470 million ($483 million) and a drop of about 1.5 percentage points in insurance fees for patients, according to Interior Minister Alain Berset. However, it falls short of initial proposals for...