World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red – as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs – ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here)....
Read More »WTI Tumbles Below $50 To 3-Week Lows
On the heels of continued dollar strength, output increases by OPEC (and US production at 2 year highs), and Libya restarting its biggest oilfield, WTI prices are tumbling for the 3rd time this week, back below $50 to their lowest in 3 weeks... As Bloomberg notes, while oil rallied into a bull market last month on the prospect of stronger demand, prices struggled to hold above $52 a barrel as supply grew from the U.S. and two members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting...
Read More »Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Fed Balance Sheet Announcement
This week attention will fall on US FOMC rate decision, BoJ policy rate announcement, German and NZ elections. Economic data releases include PMI in the Euro area, retail sales in the UK and existing home sales in US. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in South Africa, Indonesia, Hungary, Taiwan and Philippines. BofA highlights the week's key global events: Central bank meetings: US FOMC and BoJ The Fed will make policy announcement on Wednesday. Balance sheet...
Read More »Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”
US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday’s sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained...
Read More »Bond Selloff Returns As EM Fears Rise; Oil Slides; BOJ Does Not Intervene
U.S. index futures point slightly lower open. Asian shares rose while stocks in Europe fell as energy producers got caught in a downdraft in oil prices and reversed an earlier gain after Goldman unexpectedly warned that WTI could slide below $40 absent "show and awe" from OPEC. The dollar rose, hitting a four-month high against the yen and bonds and top emerging market currencies were back under pressure on Tuesday, following last week’s hawkish rhetoric from central bankers. Nonetheless,...
Read More »New Gold Pool at the BIS Switzerland: A Who’s Who of Central Bankers
This is an extract and summary from “New Gold Pool at the BIS Basle, Switzerland: Part 1” which was first published on the BullionStar.com website in mid-May. Part 2 of the series titled “New Gold Pool at the BIS Basle: Part 2 – Pool vs Gold for Oil” is also posted now on the BullionStar.com website. “In the Governor’s absence I attended the meeting in Zijlstra’s room in the BIS on the afternoon of Monday,...
Read More »Europe, US Futures Slip Despite Brent Bouncing Back To $51
Asian stocks rose lifted by commodity names; European equities trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record high Wednesday and investors prepared for earnings from retailers; we expect the now general vol selling program to promptly lift the S&P into new all time highs minutes...
Read More »Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As “Trump Trade” Collapses
Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months. Safe havens including the yen and bonds climbed as did gold,...
Read More »A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1
“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after...
Read More »WTI Crude tumbles To $49 Handle, Erases OPEC/NOPEC Deal Gains
But, but, but… growth, and inflation, and supply cuts, and growth again… Well that de-escalated quickly… As Libya restarts exports and The Fed sends the dollar soaring so WTI crude prices just broke back to a $49 handle for the first time since Dec 8th. WTI CrudeWTI Crude - Click to enlarge “The OPEC cuts are going to prevent some of the mega-glut,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug,...
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