Tag Archives: newslettersent

Retail sales had a good month of November, or at least what counts as decent over the last five and a half years. Total retail sales (unadjusted) rose 6.35% last month, up from 4.9% (revised higher) in October. It was the highest rate of growth since the 29-day month of February 2016. For retailers, what matters is that it comes at the start of the Christmas shopping season. The question is why, or more so why now?...

I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives. The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively well. All told, in 2017 alone, these Central Banks will printed over...

Momentum in the euro area picked up further at the end of the year. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The improvement was once again broad-based across sectors. Both the manufacturing (+0.5 to 60.6) and services (+0.3 to 56.5) indices improved in December, with the former reaching its highest level since the...

Switzerland has a free trade agreement with China since 2014 (Keystone) - Click to enlarge A study commissioned by Switzerland Global Enterprise (SGE) indicates that China is the most attractive export destination for Swiss small and medium enterprises (SMEs). A total of 107 countries were evaluated using a set of 15 criteria that included market size, market potential, export volume and average market...

Bitcoin was on my radar far back as 2011, but for years, I didn’t think much of it. It was a curiosity. Nothing more. Sort of like the virtual money you use in World of Warcraft or something. In 2015, looking deeper, I slowly (not the sharpest tool in the shed) arrived at that “aha” inflection point that most advocates of honest money arrive at. I realized that a distributed public ledger has the power to change, well,...

The economic data over the last two weeks continued the better than expected trend. Some of the data was quite good and makes one wonder if maybe, just maybe, we are finally ready to break out of the economic doldrums. Is it possible that all that new normal, secular stagnation stuff was just a lack of animal spirits? Is it possible that the mere anticipation of tax cuts was sufficient to break us out of the 2% growth...

The 13 December Fed decision – and Chair Yellen’s last press conference – was much as expected. The Fed hiked rates 25bps, bringing the interest rate on excess reserves to 1.5%. Meanwhile, Fed officials maintained their rate-hiking forecasts for next year: three rate increases, according to the ‘dot plot’. A salient take -away from the meeting was the Fed’s relative caution about Congress’s tax-cutting plan. Even...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.48% to 1.1666 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound has risen against the Swiss Franc as we get closer to understanding just what Brexit means for the UK and global concerns ease, weakening the Franc. The pound is essentially a barometer of progress on Brexit whilst the Swissie...

Summary Sterling is the second major currency this year after the euro (and its shadow the Danish krone). The downtrend line from mid-2014 is fraying. Is this the breakout? Sterling has trended higher against the dollar this year, and after the euro (and its Danish shadow), sterling is the strongest of the majors, with an 8.5% gain against the greenback. The gains have brought to to the trend line dawn off the...

More than any other country, Switzerland’s ethos is centered around preparing for civilizational collapse. - Click to enlarge All around Switzerland, for example, one can find thousands of water fountains fed by natural springs. Zurich is famous for its 1200 fountains, some of them quite beautiful and ornate, but it’s the multiple small, simple fountains in every Swiss village that really tell the story. Elegant,...