Tag Archives: newsletter

Fasten your seat belts.  The ride is going to get bumpy.   Economists may differ on what the ECB will do.   Investors may differ on the market response.  This uncertainty ensures a strong market reaction. The euro is off about 0.25% after recovering in the North American session yesterday.  The euro has spent this week thus far mostly within last Friday's trading range.  It has finished the North American session in the last four sessions between $1.0999 and $1.1014 according to...

Investors are skeptical of Chinese economic data.  However, news yesterday that Chinese exports fell by a quarter in February was shocking. Many worry about the implications not just for China, but for world growth.  It comes as the IMF is signaling it will likely cut its 3.4% global growth forecast next month.  There are three separate forces that impacted Chinese trade figures.  First are price changes.  The dramatic drop in commodity prices, for example,  distorts the value of imports...

German Chancellor Merkel was right. As the Greek crisis was winding down last summer, she noted that the refugee problem would be even more difficult.  And indeed, it is. The refugee issue is challenging Merkel’s leadership in Europe.  While her trademark has been her sensitivity to swings in sentiment, she has seemed rather tone-deaf in dealing with the refugee crisis. Merkel still out of step with their European allies Her move this week suggests she is still out of step with many of...

A few weeks ago investors were bemoaning a new bear market for equities, and there was much ink spilled drawing parallels between now and 2008-2009.   Falling commodities, weakening growth, and prospects of Fed tightening saw the MSCI Emerging Market equity index fall 21.5% from early-November through the third week in January.  Since then it has rallied more than 16%, and both yesterday and earlier today traded above where it finished 2015.   The rebound in emerging market shares appears...

Recent trends which include firmer equities and oil, weaker euro and bonds, and stronger dollar-bloc currencies are in reverse today, a turn-around Tuesday of sorts. MSCI's Emerging Market equity index is snapping a seven-day advancing streak, giving back yesterday's gains and a little more.  However, Chinese shares managed to post small gains.   China reported a shocking 25.4% decline in February exports (year-over-year in dollar terms).  This was a much larger drop than anyone...

08.03.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1602-40) Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2016 Consumer prices increase by 0.2% m/m and 0.8% y/y Neuchâtel, 08.03.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in February 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 99.8 points (December 2015=100 points). Inflation was -0.8% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). You can find the complete...

Early Tuesday in Tokyo, Japan will announce revisions to Q4 GDP.  A downward revision to business spending risks shaving the initial estimate from a contraction of 1.4% at an annualized rate to 1.5%.  Regardless, the key takeaway is that the world's third-largest economy contracted in two of the four quarters last year.   Recall Initially, the consensus was for a 0.8% annualized contraction in Q4.  The anticipated revision means the contraction was nearly twice as much as initially...

We argue that the dollar is in its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971.  The Reagan dollar rally was driven by the policy mix of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy.  The G7 effort to stop the dollar's appreciation at the Plaza Hotel in September 1985 marked the end of the Reagan dollar rally.  After a nearly ten-year bear market for the dollar, that included the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the ERM crisis, there was a...

The key economic note this week was that non-farm payrolls for February was 242,000 versus Wall Street’s expectation of only 190,000; 27% above the consensus target. Wages however fell back by 0.1% from February’s gain of 0.5%. The workforce participation rate moved up to 62.9%. The excellent news on Friday was however received mutely by the market. Excellent news received muted by the market The reason was the likelihood that it will increase the probability of further interest rate rises...

So the price of silver rocketed up 80 cents, while the price of gold jumped $37. Silver is now more expensive than it was two weeks ago; the price decline of last week was more than overcompensated. This pushed the gold-silver ratio down about two whole points, with virtually the whole move on Friday. Last week, we said this: Monetary Metals has been predicting a ratio well over 80 for a long time. And for two months, we have been calling for it to go much higher still. Could there be a...