Tag Archives: newsletter

We show the two phases or two innings or phases of Swiss franc appreciation: The “risk aversion game” and the “inflation game”. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the “risk aversion game“, the first innings in a two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered thanks to lower oil prices.The “inflation game”...

The stories are all over the Internet. Governments are forcing us into a cashless society. Supposedly the pretext is terrorism, and the real reason is to take more control. No doubt more power appeals to politicians, and banning cash seems like the next step after mandatory reporting of cash transactions. However, I think there is a more serious driver than simple power lust. A more compelling case is that cash banning is the logical follow up to bail-ins. Most people think a bail-in is...

Our monetary system is failing, but explaining that isn’t easy. The most popular argument is that the dollar has falling purchasing power and rising inflation. The problem with this argument is that consumer prices aren’t skyrocketing now. So, of course, people remain skeptical. Yields across all markets were falling worldwide. This causes the income generated from assets to fall. I wrote about this serious problem last time, introducing the concept of yield purchasing power—which is how...

 (post written originally in March 2013) We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Because of this insufficient risk-reward relationship, outflows in the capital (now called  “financial”) account of the Swiss balance of payments will not cover the persistent Swiss current account...