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The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.1533 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The EU’s leading negotiator whipsawed sterling yesterday. The net effect was to ease fears that the UK would leave the EU without the agreement  Initial concerns that the negotiations had stalled sent sterling to nearly  $1.3120. The...

The dollar was bid before the US economic data. The market responded quickly upon seeing the disappointing 0.1% rise in core CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.1% increase kept the year-over-year rate at 1.7% for the fourth consecutive month. The dollar reversed lower. Retail sales were largely in line with expectations. The 1.6% headline increased missed expectations by 0.1%, which is exactly what the August series was...

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, I’ve written a lot about US public pension funds lately. Many of them are underfunded and will never be able to pay workers the promised benefits – at least without dumping a huge and unwelcome bill on taxpayers. And since taxpayers are generally voters, it’s not at all clear they will pay that bill. Readers outside the US might have felt safe reading those stories....

Global Outlook – Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD World: News in Charts by Fathom Consulting via Thomson Reuters Alarm bells are ringing for economic fundamentalists such as Fathom Consulting. Asset prices look increasingly out of step with fundamentals, and in some cases they look downright bubbly. And other geopolitical developments are similarly alarming. One might even describe them as… Central Bank Assets, 2007 - 2017 -...

The hurricanes didn’t disappoint, causing major damage at least to the BLS. Precisely how much the statistics were affected by the disruptions in Texas and Florida really can’t be calculated, not that everyone won’t try. It makes this month’s payroll report a Rorschach test of sorts. You can pretty much make it out to be whatever you want. US Average Weekly Earnings, Jan 1990 - 2016(see more posts on U.S. Average...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Berne, 10 October 2017 – Registered unemployment in September 2017 – According to the SECO surveys, 133,169 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment services centers (RAV) at the end of September 2017, 2,409 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by...

USD/CHF EUR/CHF EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge EUR/JPY [embedded content] EUR/JPY with Technical Indicators, October 10(see more posts on EUR/JPY, ) - Click to enlarge EUR/AUD [embedded content] EUR/AUD with Technical Indicators, October 10(see more posts on eur/aud, ) - Click to enlarge USD/CHF [embedded content]...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Where the Good Things Go Many gold bugs make an implicit assumption. Gold is good, therefore it will go up. This is tempting but wrong (ignoring that gold does not go anywhere, it’s the dollar that goes down). One error is in thinking that now you have discovered a truth, everyone else will see it quickly. And there is a...