Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% at 1.1339 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equity markets are unable to build on yesterday’s advance, but bonds and oil are extending gains. The dollar remains on the defensive and is off again all the major currencies. The lack of a joint statement over the weekend by the US...
Read More »FX Daily, December 03: G20 Fan Animal Spirits
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% at 1.1262 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1...
Read More »Near-term Outlook
There are three key scheduled events between now and the end of the year. In chronological order, this weekend G20 meeting is first. It will shape expectations for trade tensions between the US and China, with extensive secondary impact. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s meeting may help shape expectations for the price of oil, which has collapsed here in Q4 18. The ECB meets on December 13 with new staff forecasts (likely...
Read More »Cheat Sheet
A distillation of the macro backdrop and important price considerations for selected currencies. US Dollar The market always has taken the Fed’s forecast for three rate hikes next year with a large dose of skepticism. The fed funds futures strip implies growing expectations that the Fed pauses after a hike in December and Q1 19. It is still unclear the direction of fiscal policy next year. It may be difficult for the...
Read More »FX Daily, November 19: Does Monday’s Calm mean a Storm is Around the Corner?
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% at 1.1378 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: There is an uneasy calm in the global capital markets. Investors are digesting the weekend news, which includes the failure of APEC to issue a joint statement due to US-China tensions that we highlighted by dueling speeches by China...
Read More »FX Daily, November 16: Turning Brexit into a Dog’s Breakfast
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% at 1.1422 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It is the height of irony or tragedy that what was offered as a non-binding referendum on UK’s membership in the European Union to bring the country, or at least the Tory Party, together is the most destabilizing event since the UK...
Read More »FX Daily, November 15: UK Political Drama Roils Sterling
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% at 1.1353 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The resignation of the UK’s Brexit negotiator after Prime Minister May had secured support from a majority of the cabinet sent sterling sharply lower. Raab’s resignation underscores the difficulty the Brexit agreement faces in the UK...
Read More »FX Daily, November 14: Dollar Comes Back After Yesterday’s Profit-Taking
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.39% at 1.141 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Investors are on pins and needles today. Oil prices are trying to stabilize after WTI’s outsized 7% fall yesterday, its largest in three years. Global equities are heavier, dragged down by energy, but also larger than expected Q3...
Read More »FX Daily, November 12: Sterling’s Losses Lead Dollar Rally
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.20% at 1.1368 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is enjoying broad gains against most major and emerging market currencies. Sterling, dragged down by Brexit concerns, is leading the way. With today’s losses, sterling has shed nearly 3.7 cents over the last four...
Read More »FX Daily, November 01: Dollar Slumps to Start New Month
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% at 1.1425 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It appears that month-end considerations deterred the dollar selling that the technical indicators warned was coming and as the new month starts, the dollar is offered. It is weaker against all the major currencies and most of the...
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