Authored by Christoph Gisiger via Finanz und Wirtschaft, James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm. The financial markets seem to like it: Stocks are close to record levels and...
Read More »DSGE Models: A Critique of a Harsh Defense
On Noahpinion.
Read More »The Savings Rate Conundrum
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth. What’s not to love? I just have one question. If things are so good, then why is America’s saving rate posting such a sharp decline? The answer is not...
Read More »Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return
World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red – as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs – ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here)....
Read More »Swiss National Bank Bubble Regains Lead Over Bitcoin
A week ago we tweeted… Dear @SNB_BNS_en – you are the next bitcoin: congratulations pic.twitter.com/cld4YNbNLb — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 14, 2017 But as Bitcoin rebounded from its China challenges, it overtook The SNB once again as bubbliest bubble. However, a 13% spike in the share price of The Swiss National Bank today has put an end to that leaving the central bank back in first place among the...
Read More »“Makroökonomie hat nicht versagt (It’s Not Macroeconomics That Let Us Down),” FuW, 2017
Finanz und Wirtschaft, August 2, 2017. PDF. Macroeconomists are neither forecasters nor economic policy makers. They devise models. Economic policy makers are in charge of applying them.
Read More »“Monetary Economic Issues Today,” Panel, 2017
Panel discussion with Ernst Baltensperger, Otmar Issing, Fritz Zurbrügg and Mark Dittli (moderator) on the occasion of the publication of the Festschrift in honour of Ernst Baltensperger, Bern, June 16, 2017. SNB press release. Video (SNB Forschungs-TV).
Read More »“Monetary Economic Issues Today,” Orell Füssli, 2017
Festschrift in Honour of Ernst Baltensperger, Swiss National Bank/Orell Füssli, Zürich, June 2017, with Thomas Moser, Carlos Lenz, and Marcel Savioz, editorial committee. Publisher’s website. From the publisher’s website: »Eine Welt ohne ein gut funktionierendes Zahlungssystem, ohne Geld- und andere Wertaufbewahrungsanlagen, ohne zuverlässige Recheneinheit, das wäre eine Welt mit einem viel tieferen Wohlstandsniveau,in der wir nicht mehr leben möchten.« Ernst Baltensperger Ursachen und...
Read More »Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales
After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, a disastrous for Theresa May general election in the UK, and pro-establishment results in France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece. Wednesday’s FOMC will be the main event, with the Fed expected to hike 25bp...
Read More »The Internet Helped Kill Inflation In America, Says Credit Suisse
Whether or not San Francisco Fed President John Williams is right about US inflation and employment being about as close to the central bank’s targets as investors have seen – as he told CNBC two days ago – is irrelevant: The central bank is going to raise interest rates two more times this year no matter what happens to consumer prices, says Credit Suisse Chief Investment Officer for Switzerland Burkhard Varnholt....
Read More »