Equity markets and the US dollar closed last week and August on a firm note. Ahead of the weekend, the dollar rose to new highs for the year against the euro, Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and the New Zealand dollar. While the next set of US and Chinese tariffs start September 1, the market is making the most of the lull. At the same time, US and Chinese officials probe each other to see if sufficient disruption has been felt to force concessions. Talking and...
Read More »PROSPECT OF CALMER POLITICAL WATERS REVIVES INTEREST IN ITALIAN BONDS
Spreads on Italian debt could continue to drop, as Italy’s relations with Brussels become calmer. But much will depend on the new government’s durability and its commitment to reducing the debt burden.President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella has instructed Giuseppe Conte to form a new government backed by a coalition of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). Importantly, there are still many hurdles to overcome, and a last-minute breakdown in discussions cannot be...
Read More »FX Daily, August 29: Johnson Faces Legal Challenges and Conte may be Given an Extension
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% to 1.0887 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets are calm today, though there does seem to be some optimism creeping back into the market. The Chinese yuan strengthened, snapping a ten-day slide and Italian bank shares index has risen by more than 1% for the fourth consecutive session. The safe-haven yen and...
Read More »FX Daily, August 27: Realism Fights Back After Hope Dominated Yesterday
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.44% to 1.0912 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Hope triumphed over realism yesterday, and realism is fighting back toward. Asia Pacific markets, however, traded on the echo from the recovery in North America on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific recouped part of yesterday’s drop, led by Chinese markets. Hong Kong was the main...
Read More »FX Daily, August 23: Market has Second Thoughts on Magnitude of Fed Cuts Ahead of Powell
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0887 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Powell speech at Jackson Hole stands before the weekend. Equities in Asia and Europe are finishing the week on a firm tone. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region closed higher today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-week slide. European bourses are edging higher, and...
Read More »FX Daily, August 21: European Stocks Snap Back, Market Hopeful Italian Election can be Delayed
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.27% to 1.0882 FX Rates The end of the US equity three-day advance yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific shares today. Most benchmarks fell. Better than expected trade data helped Thailand buck the trend. A firmer tone emerged in the European morning, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has recouped yesterday’s losses and more. It was led higher by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials. US shares are also trading firmer today,...
Read More »Italy: Back to polls in Q4 2019?
Recent developments in Italy’s political landscape have increased the probability of early elections in Q4 2019, but the situation is not so straightforward. Last week, political tensions in Italy intensified as Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader triggered a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. PM Conte will address the Senate on 20 August. A confidence vote will likely follow the speech, though further delays remain a possibility. Once the...
Read More »Italy: Back to polls in Q4 2019?
Recent developments in Italy’s political landscape have increased the probability of early elections in Q4 2019, but the situation is not so straightforward. Last week, political tensions in Italy intensified as Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader triggered a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.PM Conte will address the Senate on 20 August. A confidence vote will likely follow the speech, though further delays remain a possibility.Once the government dissolves, the...
Read More »FX Daily, August 12: Yen Remains Bid, While Macri’s Loss in Argentina Weighs on Struggling Mexican Peso
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0883 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: China again tried to temper the downside pressure on the yuan, and this appears to be helping the risk-taking attitude. Many centers in Asia were closed today, including Japan and India, though most of the other equity markets advanced...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Macro Deterioration
The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetites. President Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0. China set the reference rate for the dollar lower than models based on the basket the PBOC uses implied for the past three sessions, and this...
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