Tag Archives: FX Trends

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc has strengthened against the pound as global uncertainty persists in the form of the UK’s Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Looking ahead it seems the CHF may soften a little as we learn of the new President, I found it very interesting that yesterday Paddy Power paid out on any bets for Hilary Clinton to become President in the United States. This is a great indication of the...

Summary: Draghi will like emphasis inflation is the key to policy and ECB is committed using allow for its technical tools to achieve its legal mandate. Key decisions will be made in December. The more the euro rises against sterling, the greater the pressure for the euro to fall against the dollar. Mario Draghi - Click to enlarge The ECB meets tomorrow. Few, if any, are expecting fresh action. The...

  Swiss Franc and Sterling (Tom Holian) According to Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent the drop in the value of Sterling has helped to stop the UK economy from falling further since the shock of the Brexit vote. He went on to say ‘in the shape of the referendum, we’ve had exactly one of those shocks’ and added that the Bank of England would not interfere with monetary policy to boost the Pound’s value....

Summary: Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising. Back in the early post-crisis days, many pundits consumed lots of ink and column inches warning the strong inflationary pressures would be fueled by the orthodox and unorthodox monetary policy. Not only did this not...

Summary: Oil has rallied 20% since mid-September. Market may be getting ahead of itself. US rig count has risen by more than 100 in less than 4-months and inventories, seasonally adjusted are at record highs. The price of oil has risen more than 20% over the past month. It is being driven by ideas that OPEC (and Russia) may implement a freeze or an output cut at the end of next month.  At the same time, US...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 17 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating in relatively narrow trading ranges. Participants appear to be waiting for fresh incentives, while the recent rise yields continue and equities have begun the new week on a soft note. Yellen spoke before the weekend, and her explicit willingness to tolerate higher...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 17 2016(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating in relatively narrow trading ranges. Participants appear to be waiting for fresh incentives, while the recent rise yields continue and equities have begun the new week on a soft note. Yellen spoke before the weekend, and her explicit willingness to tolerate higher...

Summary: Bank of Canada meets Wed. Look for a dovish hold. Foreigners continue to buy Canadian bonds and stocks. The EU-Canadian free-trade deal is facing challenges, with the most pressing one coming from Belgium. The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday. Last month officials acknowledged that growth could be somewhat lower than previously anticipated. Those fears have likely materialized, and the central bank...

United States Of the forces driving prices in the week ahead, events appear more important than economic reports. There are four such events that investors must navigate. The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank meet.  The UK High Court will deliver its ruling on the role of Parliament in Brexit.  The rating agency DBRS updates its credit rating for Portugal. The Bank of Canada is not going to change interest...

With the strong ISM non-manufacturing PMI last week, long positions on the dollar are increasing, while speculators increase their euro and Swiss Franc shorts. CHF net shorts increased to 9.4 K positions. That the euro has depreciated against CHF, is possibly caused by real, non-speculative money into CHF, i.e. money in the form of cash and stock purchases. We will get more information tomorrow when the SNB sight...