Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Business travel commitments keep me from updating the blog until the weekend, but I wanted to share a few thoughts post-Fed. First, the Fed was more hawkish, and the median dot sees 125 bp increase in the target rate in Q4.  The hawkish thrust was also evident in projecting that the target rate will remain higher for longer.  Even in 2025 sees the target rate above the longer-term (neutral) level.   Second, the market still does not fully accept the Fed's message....

Overview: Between Putin’s mobilization of 300k Russian troops and Fed Chair Powell expected to lead the central bank to its third consecutive 75 bp hike later today, the dollar rides high. It has recorded new two-year highs against the dollar bloc and Chinese yuan, while sterling was sent to new lows since 1985. Asia Pacific bourses were a sea of red for the sixth decline in the regional benchmark in the past seven sessions. Surprisingly, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is...

Overview:  The dollar is well bid. It has risen to new two-year highs against the dollar bloc and Chinese yuan. Aided by worse than expected retail sales, sterling, on its anniversary of leaving the European Exchange Rate Mechanism fell to its lowest level since 1985. This fits into the broader risk-off move. The S&P 500 fell to new two-month lows yesterday, and FedEx warnings after the bell yesterday add to the string of worrisome comments from leading US...

Overview: The firmer than expected US CPI set off a major reversal of the recent price action. It is a two-prong issue. The first is about inflation and the squeeze on the cost-of-living. The second, and more powerful in the capital markets is how the Fed is likely to respond. This drove US stocks and bonds lower and lifted the dollar broadly. Asia Pacific bourses were a sea of red. Most major markets were off 1-2%, while the Nikkei, the Hang Seng, and Australia’s...

Overview: The bout of profit-taking on long dollar positions begun last week has carried into the start of this week.  Despite the escalating rhetoric, the yen is not participating today and is trading within the pre-weekend ranges.  The greenback’s lows have been set in the European morning and have stretched the intraday momentum indicators, suggesting that North American dealers may not follow suit. The uncertainty about the Swedish election outcome has not...

The US dollar rally is of historic proportions. Its climb is relentless, though there was around a 4-7% pullback for a few weeks beginning in mid-July. Since then, the greenback has made up for lost time and appreciated to multiyear highs against most of the major currencies. The first real bout of profit-taking in nearly a month seen in recent days looks corrective in nature.   The different performances cannot be entirely traced to monetary policy differences,...

Overview: The dollar is having one of the largest setbacks in recent weeks. We expected the dollar to soften ahead of next week’s CPI, which may fan ideas/hopes of a peak in US price pressures, but the magnitude and speed of the move is surprising, and likely speaks to the extreme positioning. Still, we caution that the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and the underlying bullish sentiment, may see North American operators take advantage of the dollar’s...

Overview: Heightened warnings from Japanese officials has helped the dollar steady against the yen, while the euro hugs parity ahead of the outcome of the ECB meeting, where a 75 bp hike is anticipated. Most Asian equity markets rallied in the wake of yesterday’s gains in the US. China and Hong Kong were notable exceptions. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is practically flat as are US futures. The US 10-year yield is softer, a little below 3.25%, while European benchmark yields...

Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital joins Keith and Dickson on the Gold Exchange Podcast to talk about the history of credit bubbles, the inevitability of central bank failings, and what history can tell us about the Fed’s current trajectory. Connect with Dan on Twitter: @Myrmikan and at Myrmikan.com Connect with Keith Weiner and Monetary Metals on Twitter: @RealKeithWeiner@Monetary_Metals [embedded content] Additional Resources CMRE.org Myrmikan.com Gold Backwardation...

Overview: Corrective pressures were evident yesterday and they extended today in Asia and Europe but seem to be running their course now. Market participants should view these developments as countertrend and be wary of waning risk appetites in North America today. Most Asia Pacific equities rallied earlier today, save China and Hong Kong. Europe’s Stoxx 600 has retraced most of yesterday’s losses and US futures are trading higher. Benchmark bond yields are softer...